Added notes on the model that I currently have.

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will king 3 years ago
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commit 4719a8504c

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# Thoughts on modelling
Initial plan is to handle just two operators.
## Environment
### Transition function
#### Debris
- Currently using a decay formulation for debris.
- Probably better to use a mass conversion from satellite -> debris
- This would have to be a stochastic approach to handle satellite destruction.
- I envision it would be better because it would represent how much debris
is created better and would easigly lend itself to a size based debris
approach.
- It doesn't represent slow degradation well though. It does handle destructive collisions better.
- Maybe I can ignore satellite on satellite collisions in an initial model because it is the lowest.
#### Satellite Stocks
- Probably just fine as is.
### Market
- Current plan is to use a cournot market approach with inverse demand: \[ P = a-bQ \]
- Need to look up dynamic cournot market lit.
## Operator's Problem
- Restrict policy to integers (e.g. 1:10)
- Use a symmetric policy and value function for each operator.
### Operator State
- Initally I am going to track one type of debris, the operator's fleet size, and the number of satellites in all other fleets.
## Social Planner's Problem
I see two different classes of problems that the Social Planner could face, and both could take various forms.
Here are the two areas and some variations:
1. Maximizing long term expected utility/value
a. Maximize expected value
b. Preserve value x% of the time
2. Preserving the resource (manage debris levels)
a. Keep debris below a threshold.
b. Keep debris from growing faster than Y rate.
c. Keep kessler syndrome from occuring in Z% over ZZ periods.
The first case "should" subsume the second in that minimal debris over a long period should permit more earnings.
But, if the time-discounting factor is low enough, this might not be the case.
And this brings up a big issue in that the discount factor of the Social Planner and the Operators might differ
a lot.
The question it poses is "Should we use this resource as we best see fit or preserve it for our descendants?"
## modelling state
I need to track all constellation sizes and debris size.
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