Added notes on the model that I currently have.
parent
48419a530d
commit
4719a8504c
@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
|
|||||||
|
# Thoughts on modelling
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Initial plan is to handle just two operators.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Environment
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Transition function
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
#### Debris
|
||||||
|
- Currently using a decay formulation for debris.
|
||||||
|
- Probably better to use a mass conversion from satellite -> debris
|
||||||
|
- This would have to be a stochastic approach to handle satellite destruction.
|
||||||
|
- I envision it would be better because it would represent how much debris
|
||||||
|
is created better and would easigly lend itself to a size based debris
|
||||||
|
approach.
|
||||||
|
- It doesn't represent slow degradation well though. It does handle destructive collisions better.
|
||||||
|
- Maybe I can ignore satellite on satellite collisions in an initial model because it is the lowest.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
#### Satellite Stocks
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Probably just fine as is.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Market
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Current plan is to use a cournot market approach with inverse demand: \[ P = a-bQ \]
|
||||||
|
- Need to look up dynamic cournot market lit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Operator's Problem
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Restrict policy to integers (e.g. 1:10)
|
||||||
|
- Use a symmetric policy and value function for each operator.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Operator State
|
||||||
|
- Initally I am going to track one type of debris, the operator's fleet size, and the number of satellites in all other fleets.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Social Planner's Problem
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I see two different classes of problems that the Social Planner could face, and both could take various forms.
|
||||||
|
Here are the two areas and some variations:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Maximizing long term expected utility/value
|
||||||
|
a. Maximize expected value
|
||||||
|
b. Preserve value x% of the time
|
||||||
|
2. Preserving the resource (manage debris levels)
|
||||||
|
a. Keep debris below a threshold.
|
||||||
|
b. Keep debris from growing faster than Y rate.
|
||||||
|
c. Keep kessler syndrome from occuring in Z% over ZZ periods.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The first case "should" subsume the second in that minimal debris over a long period should permit more earnings.
|
||||||
|
But, if the time-discounting factor is low enough, this might not be the case.
|
||||||
|
And this brings up a big issue in that the discount factor of the Social Planner and the Operators might differ
|
||||||
|
a lot.
|
||||||
|
The question it poses is "Should we use this resource as we best see fit or preserve it for our descendants?"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## modelling state
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I need to track all constellation sizes and debris size.
|
||||||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue