diff --git a/Notes_on_Model.txt b/Notes_on_Model.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5a09f7b --- /dev/null +++ b/Notes_on_Model.txt @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +# Thoughts on modelling + +Initial plan is to handle just two operators. + +## Environment + +### Transition function + +#### Debris +- Currently using a decay formulation for debris. +- Probably better to use a mass conversion from satellite -> debris + - This would have to be a stochastic approach to handle satellite destruction. + - I envision it would be better because it would represent how much debris + is created better and would easigly lend itself to a size based debris + approach. + - It doesn't represent slow degradation well though. It does handle destructive collisions better. +- Maybe I can ignore satellite on satellite collisions in an initial model because it is the lowest. + +#### Satellite Stocks + +- Probably just fine as is. + + +### Market + +- Current plan is to use a cournot market approach with inverse demand: \[ P = a-bQ \] +- Need to look up dynamic cournot market lit. + +## Operator's Problem + +- Restrict policy to integers (e.g. 1:10) +- Use a symmetric policy and value function for each operator. + +### Operator State +- Initally I am going to track one type of debris, the operator's fleet size, and the number of satellites in all other fleets. + +## Social Planner's Problem + +I see two different classes of problems that the Social Planner could face, and both could take various forms. +Here are the two areas and some variations: + +1. Maximizing long term expected utility/value + a. Maximize expected value + b. Preserve value x% of the time +2. Preserving the resource (manage debris levels) + a. Keep debris below a threshold. + b. Keep debris from growing faster than Y rate. + c. Keep kessler syndrome from occuring in Z% over ZZ periods. + +The first case "should" subsume the second in that minimal debris over a long period should permit more earnings. +But, if the time-discounting factor is low enough, this might not be the case. +And this brings up a big issue in that the discount factor of the Social Planner and the Operators might differ +a lot. +The question it poses is "Should we use this resource as we best see fit or preserve it for our descendants?" + +## modelling state + +I need to track all constellation sizes and debris size.