Wrote most of Kessler Syndrome Section

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Will King 5 years ago
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@ -36,19 +36,45 @@ It is easily shown that this criteria is sufficient to guarantee Rao and Rondina
It has three primary benefits: It has three primary benefits:
\begin{itemize} \begin{itemize}
\item % Can be solved for algebraically or numerically for a given, bounded state space. \item % Can be solved for algebraically or numerically for a given, bounded state space.
The kessler region can be numerically described within bounded state spaces. The $\epsilon$-kessler region can be numerically described within bounded state spaces.
\item % This is what you would actually compute. \item % This is what you would actually compute.
In a Computational General Equilibrium Model, as most models of any complexity will be, In a computational model, as most models of any complexity will be,
you cannot check for divergence numerically. you cannot check for divergence numerically.
The condition given is a basic guarantee of the divergent behavior that is The condition given is a basic guarantee of the divergent behavior that is
required for Kessler Syndrome and acknowledges computational limitations. required for Kessler Syndrome and acknowledges computational limitations.
\item Finally, a slow divergence is no divergence in the grand scheme of things. \item Finally, a slow divergence is no divergence in the grand scheme of things.
It is possible to have a mathematically divergent function, but one that is so slow, It is possible to have a mathematically divergent function, but one that is so slow,
there is no noticable degree of debris growth before Sol enters a red giant phase. there is no noticable degree of debris growth before Sol enters a red giant phase.
In this specification, it is possible to choose $\epsilon$ such that the divergent behavior In this specification, it is possible to choose $\epsilon$ such that the divergent behaviors
has an impact on a meaningful timescale. identified have an impact on a meaningful timescale.
% \item % Stochastic versions could might be describable as martigales.
\end{itemize} \end{itemize}
% Issue with this approach: What about cyclical behaviors?
% Autocatalysis leads to high debris leads to reduced launches
% which leads to debris decay leads to increased launches leads to Autocatalysis
There is at least one issue with this definition of $\epsilon$-kessler regions.
Let's define a ``proto-kesslerian'' region as the stock and debris levels such that:
\begin{align}
\kappa = \left\{ \{s^j_t\}, D_t :
D_{t+1} - D_{t} \geq \epsilon > 0 \right\}
\end{align}
It may be, under certain situations, the case that optimal launch rates cycle along with
debris and stock levels, leading to a cycle in and out of the proto-kesslerian regions.
This is an issue because, assumning a stable cycle, Rao's definition
of the kessler region would capture this behavior, but the $\epsilon$-kessler definition
would not.
I believe, but have not verified, that some choices of $\epsilon$, although permitting cycles,
would relegate them to levels with minimal economic impact.
%Maybe can be studies by phase or flow diagrams?
%Area of research: What makes a good \epsilon?
This leads to the important question of ``What makes a good value of $\epsilon$?''
One method, in the spirit of \cite{Adilov2018}, is to choose a change in debris, $D_{t+1} - D_t$, such that
the loss of satellites in periods $t+1$ to $t+k$ is increased by or to a certain percentage, say 50\%.
I've put very little thought into addressing this general question so far,
and need to analyze the implications of different choice rules.
\end{document} \end{document}

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