diff --git a/CurrentWriting/Main.pdf b/CurrentWriting/Main.pdf index 6dd9c83..cb0888f 100644 Binary files a/CurrentWriting/Main.pdf and b/CurrentWriting/Main.pdf differ diff --git a/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.pdf b/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.pdf index 496551b..8bfe422 100644 Binary files a/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.pdf and b/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.pdf differ diff --git a/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.tex b/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.tex index e1cb310..d82e252 100644 --- a/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.tex +++ b/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.tex @@ -36,19 +36,45 @@ It is easily shown that this criteria is sufficient to guarantee Rao and Rondina It has three primary benefits: \begin{itemize} \item % Can be solved for algebraically or numerically for a given, bounded state space. - The kessler region can be numerically described within bounded state spaces. + The $\epsilon$-kessler region can be numerically described within bounded state spaces. \item % This is what you would actually compute. - In a Computational General Equilibrium Model, as most models of any complexity will be, + In a computational model, as most models of any complexity will be, you cannot check for divergence numerically. The condition given is a basic guarantee of the divergent behavior that is required for Kessler Syndrome and acknowledges computational limitations. \item Finally, a slow divergence is no divergence in the grand scheme of things. It is possible to have a mathematically divergent function, but one that is so slow, there is no noticable degree of debris growth before Sol enters a red giant phase. - In this specification, it is possible to choose $\epsilon$ such that the divergent behavior - has an impact on a meaningful timescale. -% \item % Stochastic versions could might be describable as martigales. + In this specification, it is possible to choose $\epsilon$ such that the divergent behaviors + identified have an impact on a meaningful timescale. \end{itemize} +% Issue with this approach: What about cyclical behaviors? +% Autocatalysis leads to high debris leads to reduced launches +% which leads to debris decay leads to increased launches leads to Autocatalysis +There is at least one issue with this definition of $\epsilon$-kessler regions. +Let's define a ``proto-kesslerian'' region as the stock and debris levels such that: +\begin{align} + \kappa = \left\{ \{s^j_t\}, D_t : + D_{t+1} - D_{t} \geq \epsilon > 0 \right\} +\end{align} +It may be, under certain situations, the case that optimal launch rates cycle along with +debris and stock levels, leading to a cycle in and out of the proto-kesslerian regions. +This is an issue because, assumning a stable cycle, Rao's definition +of the kessler region would capture this behavior, but the $\epsilon$-kessler definition +would not. +I believe, but have not verified, that some choices of $\epsilon$, although permitting cycles, +would relegate them to levels with minimal economic impact. +%Maybe can be studies by phase or flow diagrams? + + +%Area of research: What makes a good \epsilon? +This leads to the important question of ``What makes a good value of $\epsilon$?'' +One method, in the spirit of \cite{Adilov2018}, is to choose a change in debris, $D_{t+1} - D_t$, such that +the loss of satellites in periods $t+1$ to $t+k$ is increased by or to a certain percentage, say 50\%. +I've put very little thought into addressing this general question so far, +and need to analyze the implications of different choice rules. + + \end{document}