Update 'Concept paper 2022 02 09'

Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
-# Goals
+# Overarching Vision
 I think I can get two, maybe three, papers out of this:
 
 - Estimate the joint probability of success and Plan Normalized duration.
-- Estimate a model similar to EK's model of market vs scientific failure.
+- Estimate a model similar to EK's model of market vs scientific failure, incorporating the previous point.
 - Develop a structural model that includes a policy parameter relevant to a policy the CBO cares about (Not a high priority yet).
 
 ## Questions:
@@ -11,6 +11,18 @@ I think I can get two, maybe three, papers out of this:
 - What is the effect of `policy` on phase completion and phase transition?
     - What is the impact of surragate endpoints on phase transition completion? on phase transition?
 
+## Value Proposition:
+
+Attempt to build a "cannonical" probabalistic model of the clinical trials process, which will allow for a simple way to test hypotheses regarding the impact of policies and practices on drug development.
+
+### Desired Attributes
+
+- straightforward to re-estimate model and add extensions.
+- [Data Processing](https://gitea.kgjk.icu/Research/ClinicalTrialsDataProcessing) is separate and mostly automated.
+    - An input data standard exists.
+- Inference method is well supported.
+- Documentation of code exists, and is useful.
+
 # Models
 The general benefit I can provide is to:
 
@@ -51,10 +63,12 @@ The probabalistic model could then be used to answer various questions, includin
 It would also be straightforward to develop simulations from this approach, as the probabilities are right there.
 
 # Estimation Strategy
-Probably use a non-parametric bayesian approach to estimating the probability densities.
-[[AbrantesMetz-Adams-and-Metz]] use a mixed state proportional hazards model.
+Probably use a non-parametric (np-bayesian?) approach to estimating the probability densities.
+
 
 ## Phase Completion Probabilities:
+[[AbrantesMetz-Adams-and-Metz]] use a mixed state proportional hazards model.
+
 
 The goal is to estimate
 
@@ -70,6 +84,8 @@ I may also include the combined phases
 I think there might be a way of condensing these using "phase endpoints" as a marker, and not the phase type itself.
 
 ## Phase Transition Probabilities:
+[[EK]] used *finish describing*
+
 
 The goal is to estimate