From 8edb26805924345cbbffa4d9a18cf135c75d29c8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Will King Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2022 11:30:51 -0800 Subject: [PATCH] Update 'Concept paper 2022 02 09' --- Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md | 24 ++++++++++++++++++++---- 1 file changed, 20 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md b/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md index 2854dd7..340e014 100644 --- a/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md +++ b/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ -# Goals +# Overarching Vision I think I can get two, maybe three, papers out of this: - Estimate the joint probability of success and Plan Normalized duration. -- Estimate a model similar to EK's model of market vs scientific failure. +- Estimate a model similar to EK's model of market vs scientific failure, incorporating the previous point. - Develop a structural model that includes a policy parameter relevant to a policy the CBO cares about (Not a high priority yet). ## Questions: @@ -11,6 +11,18 @@ I think I can get two, maybe three, papers out of this: - What is the effect of `policy` on phase completion and phase transition? - What is the impact of surragate endpoints on phase transition completion? on phase transition? +## Value Proposition: + +Attempt to build a "cannonical" probabalistic model of the clinical trials process, which will allow for a simple way to test hypotheses regarding the impact of policies and practices on drug development. + +### Desired Attributes + +- straightforward to re-estimate model and add extensions. +- [Data Processing](https://gitea.kgjk.icu/Research/ClinicalTrialsDataProcessing) is separate and mostly automated. + - An input data standard exists. +- Inference method is well supported. +- Documentation of code exists, and is useful. + # Models The general benefit I can provide is to: @@ -51,10 +63,12 @@ The probabalistic model could then be used to answer various questions, includin It would also be straightforward to develop simulations from this approach, as the probabilities are right there. # Estimation Strategy -Probably use a non-parametric bayesian approach to estimating the probability densities. -[[AbrantesMetz-Adams-and-Metz]] use a mixed state proportional hazards model. +Probably use a non-parametric (np-bayesian?) approach to estimating the probability densities. + ## Phase Completion Probabilities: +[[AbrantesMetz-Adams-and-Metz]] use a mixed state proportional hazards model. + The goal is to estimate @@ -70,6 +84,8 @@ I may also include the combined phases I think there might be a way of condensing these using "phase endpoints" as a marker, and not the phase type itself. ## Phase Transition Probabilities: +[[EK]] used *finish describing* + The goal is to estimate