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117 lines
5.0 KiB
Markdown
117 lines
5.0 KiB
Markdown
# How I think orbit decisions are made.
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There is a company (operator) with some $n\in N_0$ satellites in orbit.
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They feel there would be benefit of adding another satellite.
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They can estimate with relative accuracy the revenue improvements from adding and operating the satellite.
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They have knowledge about the cost of operating the satellite.
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They have a prior belief about the risks the satellite will face post launch.
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This belief updates as situation changes.
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The satellite can be in one of the following stages:
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- Development
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- Launch
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- Operation
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- Defunct
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- Destroyed
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- Deorbited
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Satellite state also includes
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- current velocity/trajectory (orbit)
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- current location
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- current consummables status (fuel, film, some forms of inertia)
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- current renewables status (battery, digitial storage space with up/download link)
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- current operational status
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Sattelite control includes
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- consumable use
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- renewables use
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- renuwables renewal
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and can influence
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- operational status (except current location)
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- stage
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Risk takes the form of:
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- Development Risk (to slow of development, miss out on opportunities)
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- Launch Risk (doesn't deploy properly, fire end points to space)
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- Operational risk (lose control, move out of optimal path, interference by other satellites)
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- Latent existence risk (unknown space debris) (possibly ignorable?)
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- Observed existence risk (known space debris, other satellites)
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- Kessler risk (kessler syndrome)
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- Liability
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The operator is then faced with the following decision during operation:
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How do I maximize operational revenue while minimizing the avoidable and unavoidable risk, over time.
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Also, how do I make an optimal stopping decision to choose when to deorbit?
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Other interesting insights
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The uninformed probability that you survive X time is exponential in debris, cet.paribus., but is not exponential conditional on increasing or decreasing satellite stock
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- gamma? where no launches get an exponential form, but increased/decreased launches gives a gamma?
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The chance of transferring to a defunct state is not going to have the conditional indepencece behavior of exposure to debris.
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Modeling ideas
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Don't need to model orbit period by period. Usually movement etc takes place over multiple orbits.
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Debris risk could probably be handled as density bands at various latitudes, and integrated across for a given time (related to how much time is spend in each band)
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Other Satellite risk - Not sure how to model it.
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Assume constelations attempt to place at a uniform density (this might not be true).
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How I think orbit decisions are made.
|
|
|
|
There is a company (operator) with some $n\in N_0$ satellites in orbit.
|
|
They feel there would be benefit of adding another satellite.
|
|
They can estimate with relative accuracy the revenue improvements from adding and operating the satellite.
|
|
They have knowledge about the cost of operating the satellite.
|
|
They have a prior belief about the risks the satellite will face post launch.
|
|
This belief updates as situation changes.
|
|
|
|
The satellite can be in one of the following stages:
|
|
- Development
|
|
- Launch
|
|
- Operation
|
|
- Defunct
|
|
- Destroyed
|
|
- Deorbited
|
|
|
|
Satellite state also includes
|
|
- current velocity/trajectory (orbit)
|
|
- current location
|
|
- current consummables status (fuel, film, some forms of inertia)
|
|
- current renewables status (battery, digitial storage space with up/download link)
|
|
- current operational status
|
|
|
|
Sattelite control includes
|
|
- consumable use
|
|
- renewables use
|
|
- renuwables renewal
|
|
and can influence
|
|
- operational status (except current location)
|
|
- stage
|
|
|
|
Risk takes the form of:
|
|
- Development Risk (to slow of development, miss out on opportunities)
|
|
- Launch Risk (doesn't deploy properly, fire end points to space)
|
|
- Operational risk (lose control, move out of optimal path, interference by other satellites)
|
|
- Latent existence risk (unknown space debris) (possibly ignorable?)
|
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- Observed existence risk (known space debris, other satellites)
|
|
- Kessler risk (kessler syndrome)
|
|
- Liability
|
|
|
|
|
|
The operator is then faced with the following decision during operation:
|
|
How do I maximize operational revenue while minimizing the avoidable and unavoidable risk, over time.
|
|
Also, how do I make an optimal stopping decision to choose when to deorbit?
|
|
|
|
Other interesting insights
|
|
The uninformed probability that you survive X time is exponential in debris, cet.paribus., but is not exponential conditional on increasing or decreasing satellite stock
|
|
- gamma? where no launches get an exponential form, but increased/decreased launches gives a gamma?
|
|
The chance of transferring to a defunct state is not going to have the conditional indepencece behavior of exposure to debris.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Modeling ideas
|
|
Don't need to model orbit period by period. Usually movement etc takes place over multiple orbits.
|
|
Debris risk could probably be handled as density bands at various latitudes, and integrated across for a given time (related to how much time is spend in each band)
|
|
Other Satellite risk - Not sure how to model it.
|
|
Assume constelations attempt to place at a uniform density (this might not be true).
|