Merge branch 'temporaryWork' of bitbucket.org:wking42/orbits into temporaryWork

This is merging some work I did at home, fixing citations to work from the office.
5 years ago · 9430a609ad
parent 3ecc922087 d9588f5a56
commit 9430a609ad
7 changed files with 822 additions and 129 deletions
--- a/CurrentWriting/Main.tex
+++ b/CurrentWriting/Main.tex
@ -23,7 +23,7 @@


 \section{Modeling the Environment}
-\subsection{Laws of Motion}
+\subsection{Laws of Motion}\label{SEC:Laws}
 \subfile{sections/01_LawsOfMotion} %Roughly done 2021-07-15

 \subsubsection{Survival Analysis}\label{SEC:Survival}
@ -43,7 +43,7 @@
 \subsection{Social Planner's Program}\label{SEC:Planner}
 \subfile{sections/05_SocialPlanner} %TODO

-\section{Computation}
+\section{Computation}\label{SEC:Computation}
 \subfile{sections/07_ComputationalApproach} %TODO

 \section{Assumptions and Caveats}
@ -53,6 +53,10 @@ I hope to write a section clearly explaining assumptions, caveats, and shortcomi
 %With my current computational idea; each constellation provides the same risk to each other constellation
 %   That can be easily adjusted in the computational models.

+\newpage
+\section{References}
+\printbibliography
+\newpage
 \section{Appedicies}
 \subsection{Mathematical Notation}
 Needs completed.
--- a/CurrentWriting/References.bib
+++ b/CurrentWriting/References.bib
@ -0,0 +1,689 @@
+% Encoding: UTF-8
+
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+  year        = {2020},
+  volume      = {7},
+  doi         = {10.3390/aerospace7090133},
+  incitefulid = {46960957},
+  issue       = {9},
+  magid       = {3083163740},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace7090133},
+}
+
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+   year = {2019},
+   journal = {Acta Astronautica},
+   volume = {160}
+}
+
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+   year = {2015}
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+}
+
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+}
+
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+  journal     = {IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems},
+  title       = {Reduction Over Time to Facilitate Peer-to-Peer Barter Relationships},
+  year        = {2006},
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+
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+}
+
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+   incitefulid = {56077441},
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+   year = {1920}
+}
+
+@Article{Felicetti2016,
+  author      = {Leonard Felicetti and M. Reza Emami},
+  journal     = {Acta Astronautica},
+  title       = {A multi-spacecraft formation approach to space debris surveillance},
+  year        = {2016},
+  volume      = {127},
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.05.040},
+  incitefulid = {50032059},
+  magid       = {2466447974},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.05.040},
+}
+
+@article{102686645,
+   incitefulid = {102686645},
+   title = {Orbital debris: Threat analysis and satellite security compliances},
+   magid = {2781208112},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1109/i2ct.2017.8226277},
+   doi = {10.1109/i2ct.2017.8226277},
+   author = {Uttam Banik and Shaikh Muhammad Rizwan Ali and Mahbubur Rahman},
+   year = {2017}
+}
+
+@article{66562802,
+   incitefulid = {66562802},
+   title = {Multiple Debris Orbital Collision Avoidance},
+   magid = {2949670998},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1109/aero.2019.8742114},
+   doi = {10.1109/aero.2019.8742114},
+   author = {Ahmed Refaat Hamed and Ahmed Badawy and Adel A. Omer and Mahmoud M. Ashry and Wessam M. Hussein},
+   year = {2019}
+}
+
+@article{118162223,
+   incitefulid = {118162223},
+   title = {Risks in Space from Orbiting Debris},
+   magid = {1622616609},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1126/science.1121337},
+   doi = {10.1126/science.1121337},
+   author = {J.-C. Liou and Nicholas L. Johnson},
+   year = {2006},
+   journal = {Science},
+   volume = {311},
+   issue = {5759}
+}
+
+@Article{Johnson2010,
+  author      = {Nicholas L. Johnson},
+  title       = {Orbital Debris: the Growing Threat to Space Operations},
+  year        = {2010},
+  incitefulid = {46739820},
+  magid       = {768267261},
+}
+
+@article{108453804,
+   incitefulid = {108453804},
+   title = {The Automatic Velocity Evolution Model Of Space Debris},
+   magid = {2412660620},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.2991/wartia-16.2016.216},
+   doi = {10.2991/wartia-16.2016.216},
+   author = {Bin Ren},
+   year = {2016}
+}
+
+@article{62538150,
+   incitefulid = {62538150},
+   title = {The Analytical Decision Model of Cleaning Space Debris},
+   magid = {2405548400},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.2991/ameii-16.2016.109},
+   doi = {10.2991/ameii-16.2016.109},
+   author = {Jing Ding},
+   year = {2016}
+}
+
+@article{112789094,
+   incitefulid = {112789094},
+   title = {The New Space Economy: Consequences for Space Security in Europe},
+   magid = {2982921948},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22786-9_74-1},
+   doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-22786-9_74-1},
+   author = {Jean-Pierre Darnis},
+   year = {2019}
+}
+
+@Article{Adilov2020,
+  author      = {Nodir Adilov and Peter J. Alexander and Brendan Cunningham},
+  journal     = {Journal of Space Safety Engineering},
+  title       = {The economics of orbital debris generation, accumulation, mitigation, and remediation},
+  year        = {2020},
+  volume      = {7},
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.jsse.2020.07.016},
+  incitefulid = {148697967},
+  issue       = {3},
+  magid       = {3043569725},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsse.2020.07.016},
+}
+
+@Article{Hilton2019,
+  author      = {Samuel Hilton and Roberto Sabatini and Alessandro Gardi and Hideaki Ogawa and Paolo Teofilatto},
+  journal     = {Progress in Aerospace Sciences},
+  title       = {Space traffic management: towards safe and unsegregated space transport operations},
+  year        = {2019},
+  volume      = {105},
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.paerosci.2018.10.006},
+  incitefulid = {9657629},
+  magid       = {2912062988},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.paerosci.2018.10.006},
+}
+
+@article{188182895,
+   incitefulid = {188182895},
+   title = {Cost and risk assessment for spacecraft operation decisions caused by the space debris environment},
+   magid = {1970400439},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2015.03.028},
+   doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2015.03.028},
+   author = {Hanspeter Schaub and Lee E. Z. Jasper and Paul V. Anderson and Darren S. McKnight},
+   year = {2015},
+   journal = {Acta Astronautica},
+   volume = {113}
+}
+
+@article{162644119,
+   incitefulid = {162644119},
+   title = {Developing our Planetary Plan with an 18th United Nations Sustainable Development Goal: Space Environment},
+   magid = {3083934200},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.4102/hts.v76i1.5951},
+   doi = {10.4102/hts.v76i1.5951},
+   author = {Andreas Losch},
+   year = {2020},
+   journal = {Hts Teologiese Studies-theological Studies},
+   volume = {76},
+   issue = {1}
+}
+
+@Article{Kessler1991,
+  author      = {Donald J. Kessler},
+  journal     = {Advances in Space Research},
+  title       = {Collisional cascading: The limits of population growth in low earth orbit},
+  year        = {1991},
+  volume      = {11},
+  doi         = {10.1016/0273-1177(91)90543-s},
+  incitefulid = {1761108},
+  issue       = {12},
+  magid       = {2047115193},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/0273-1177(91)90543-s},
+}
+
+@article{214405798,
+   incitefulid = {214405798},
+   title = {Digital Currency Design for Sustainable Active Debris Removal in Space},
+   magid = {2766757841},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1109/tcss.2018.2890655},
+   doi = {10.1109/tcss.2018.2890655},
+   author = {Kenji Saito and Shinji Hatta and Toshiya Hanada},
+   year = {2019},
+   journal = {IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems},
+   volume = {6},
+   issue = {1}
+}
+
+@article{66410632,
+   incitefulid = {66410632},
+   title = {Four Economic Indicators of Space Debris Removal schemes},
+   magid = {2414936991},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.2991/wartia-16.2016.155},
+   doi = {10.2991/wartia-16.2016.155},
+   author = {Jiali Chen},
+   year = {2016}
+}
+
+@Article{Georgescu2019,
+  author      = {Alexandru Georgescu and Adrian V. Gheorghe and Marius-Ioan Piso and Polinpapilinho F. Katina},
+  title       = {Critical Space Infrastructure Protection},
+  year        = {2019},
+  doi         = {10.1007/978-3-030-12604-9_6},
+  incitefulid = {29350079},
+  magid       = {2923440499},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12604-9_6},
+}
+
+@article{212272895,
+   incitefulid = {212272895},
+   title = {Spacecraft design optimisation for demise and survivability},
+   magid = {2624781710},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ast.2018.04.006},
+   doi = {10.1016/j.ast.2018.04.006},
+   author = {Mirko Trisolini and Hugh G. Lewis and Camilla Colombo},
+   year = {2018},
+   journal = {Aerospace Science and Technology},
+   volume = {77}
+}
+
+@article{66091958,
+   incitefulid = {66091958},
+   title = {A computationally efficient model predictive control scheme for space debris rendezvous},
+   magid = {2990015610},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.11.077},
+   doi = {10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.11.077},
+   author = {Alexander Korsfeldt Larsén and Yutao Chen and Mattia Bruschetta and Ruggero Carli and Angelo Cenedese and Damiano Varagnolo and Leonard Felicetti},
+   year = {2019},
+   journal = {IFAC-PapersOnLine},
+   volume = {52},
+   issue = {12}
+}
+
+@article{57781939,
+   incitefulid = {57781939},
+   title = {The economics of space debris: Estimating the costs and benefits of debris mitigation},
+   magid = {251495056},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2015.05.006},
+   doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2015.05.006},
+   author = {Molly K. Macauley},
+   year = {2015},
+   journal = {Acta Astronautica},
+   volume = {115}
+}
+
+@Article{McKnight2013,
+  author      = {Darren S. McKnight and Frank Di Pentino},
+  journal     = {Acta Astronautica},
+  title       = {New insights on the orbital debris collision hazard at GEO},
+  year        = {2013},
+  volume      = {85},
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.12.006},
+  incitefulid = {27222000},
+  magid       = {2073559259},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.12.006},
+}
+
+@article{154074416,
+   incitefulid = {154074416},
+   title = {Controlling the growth of future LEO debris populations with active debris removal},
+   magid = {2005265972},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2009.08.005},
+   doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2009.08.005},
+   author = {J.-C. Liou and N.L. Johnson and N.M. Hill},
+   year = {2010},
+   journal = {Acta Astronautica},
+   volume = {66},
+   issue = {5}
+}
+
+@article{101269866,
+   incitefulid = {101269866},
+   title = {A Physico-Economic Model of Low Earth Orbit Management},
+   magid = {3092952352},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00515-z},
+   doi = {10.1007/s10640-020-00515-z},
+   author = {Sébastien Rouillon},
+   year = {2020},
+   journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics}
+}
+
+@article{162280359,
+   incitefulid = {162280359},
+   title = {Spacecraft formation for debris surveillance},
+   magid = {2625720859},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1109/aero.2017.7943750},
+   doi = {10.1109/aero.2017.7943750},
+   author = {Leonard Felicetti and M. Reza Emami},
+   year = {2017}
+}
+
+@article{114237409,
+   incitefulid = {114237409},
+   title = {Survey of Numerical Methods for Trajectory Optimization},
+   magid = {2162218551},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.2514/2.4231},
+   doi = {10.2514/2.4231},
+   author = {John T. Betts},
+   year = {1998},
+   journal = {Journal of Guidance Control and Dynamics},
+   volume = {21},
+   issue = {2}
+}
+
+@article{256630180,
+   incitefulid = {256630180},
+   title = {Chapter 7 – Extraterrestrial Environment},
+   magid = {3021840897},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-62733-9.00007-1},
+   doi = {10.1016/b978-0-444-62733-9.00007-1},
+   author = {V.J. Inglezakis},
+   year = {2016}
+}
+
+@Article{2019,
+  author      = {nasa},
+  title       = {Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA's Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs},
+  year        = {2019},
+  incitefulid = {42714011},
+  magid       = {3031733127},
+}
+
+@article{262509284,
+   incitefulid = {262509284},
+   title = {The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery},
+   magid = {3088713371},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1086/257497},
+   doi = {10.1086/257497},
+   author = {Scott Gordon},
+   year = {1954},
+   journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
+   volume = {62},
+   issue = {2}
+}
+
+@article{154958220,
+   incitefulid = {154958220},
+   title = {Space, the Final Economic Frontier},
+   magid = {2802077611},
+   url = {http://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.2.173},
+   doi = {10.1257/jep.32.2.173},
+   author = {Matthew Weinzierl},
+   year = {2018},
+   journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
+   volume = {32},
+   issue = {2}
+}
+
+@article{81950534,
+   incitefulid = {81950534},
+   title = {Critical number of spacecraft in low Earth orbit: using satellite fragmentation data to evaluate the stability of the orbital debris environment},
+   magid = {1652153244},
+   author = {Donald J. Kessler and Phillip D. Anz-Meador},
+   year = {2001},
+   volume = {1}
+}
+
+@Misc{EsaTweet,
+  author    = {ESA},
+  title     = {For the first time ever, ESA has performed a 'collision avoidance manoeuvre' to protect one of its satellites from colliding with a 'mega constellation' \#SpaceTraffic},
+  addendum  = {https://twitter.com/esaoperations},
+  date      = {2019-09-02},
+  nameaddon = {\@ESAOperations},
+}
+
+@Electronic{ArsTechnicaStatement,
+  author       = {Brodkin, Jon},
+  howpublished = {Online Article},
+  language     = {English},
+  note         = {Statement from SpaceX to ARS Technica},
+  organization = {Ars Technica},
+  title        = {SpaceX satellite was on “collision course” until ESA satellite was re-routed},
+  url          = {https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/09/spacex-satellite-was-on-collision-course-until-esa-satellite-was-re-routed/},
+  date         = {2019-09-03},
+}
+
+@Electronic{EsaBlog,
+  author       = {ESA},
+  howpublished = {Online},
+  language     = {English},
+  organization = {European Space Agency},
+  title        = {ESA spacecraft dodges large constellation},
+  url          = {http://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/ESA_spacecraft_dodges_large_constellation},
+  date         = {2019-09-03},
+}
+
+@PhdThesis{Rao:Dissertation,
+  author = {Rao, Akhil},
+  school = {University of Colorado},
+  title  = {The Economics of Orbit Use: Theory, Policy, and Practice},
+  year   = {2019},
+}
+
+@Article{Macauley_1998,
+  author    = {Macauley, Molly K},
+  journal   = {The Journal of Law and Economics},
+  title     = {Allocation of Orbit and Spectrum Resources for Regional Communications: What's At Stake?},
+  year      = {1998},
+  issn      = {0022-2186},
+  number    = {S2},
+  pages     = {737–764},
+  volume    = {41},
+  abstract  = {Contentious debate surrounds allocation of the geostationary orbit and electromagneticspectrum, two resources used by communications satellites.  An extensive economicsliterature alleges that the nonmarket administrative allocative procedures now in place arehighly inefficient, but no research has empirically estimated the welfare loss.  This paperdevelops a conceptual framework and a computerized model to estimate the economic valueof the resources, the size and distribution of welfare costs associated with the presentregulatory regime, and the potential gains from more market-like allocation.
+
+Key Words: outer space, communications satellites, pricing natural resources
+
+JEL Classification Nos.: H4, Q2},
+  doi       = {10.1086/467411},
+  publisher = {The Journal of Law and Economics},
+}
+
+@InBook{brillinger_2001,
+  author = {Brillinger, David R.},
+  pages  = {105–116},
+  title  = {Space Debris: Flux in a Two Dimensional Orbit},
+  year   = {2001},
+  doi    = {10.1007/978-3-0348-8326-9_8},
+}
+
+@Article{Adilov2018a,
+  author = {Adilov and Alexander and Cunningham},
+  title  = {Corrigendum to “An economic “Kessler Syndrome”: A dynamic model of earth orbit debris” [Econom. Lett. 166 (2018) 79–82]},
+  year   = {2018},
+  issn   = {0165-1765},
+  pages  = {185},
+  volume = {170},
+  doi    = {10.1016/j.econlet.2018.04.012},
+}
+
+@Misc{Kessler1990,
+  author = {Donald Kessler},
+  title  = {Orbital debris environment for spacecraft in low earth orbit},
+  year   = {1990},
+  doi    = {10.2514/6.1990-1353},
+}
+
+@Article{Adilov,
+  author = {Adilov and Alexander and Cunningham},
+  title  = {Earth Orbit Debris: An Economic Model},
+  year   = {2015},
+  issn   = {1556-5068},
+  doi    = {10.2139/ssrn.2264915},
+}
+
+@Electronic{FAA2020,
+  author       = {NA},
+  howpublished = {Online},
+  month        = oct,
+  note         = {Describes altitude of LEO and GEO},
+  organization = {Federal Aviation Administration},
+  url          = {https://www.faa.gov/space/additional_information/faq/#s1},
+  year         = {2020},
+}
+
+@TechReport{Rao2020a,
+  author      = {Rao and Rondina},
+  institution = {NA},
+  title       = {Cost in Space:Debris and Collision Risk in the Orbital Commons},
+  year        = {2020},
+  month       = feb,
+  note        = {Middlebury College | UC San Diego},
+  type        = {Working Paper},
+}
+
+@Misc{Kennedy1962,
+  author = {John F. Kennedy},
+  month  = sep,
+  title  = {Address at Rice University on the Nation's Space Effort},
+  year   = {1962},
+  url    = {https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/ricetalk.htm},
+}
+
+@Article{Adilov2019,
+  author      = {Nodir Adilov and Brendan Cunningham and Peter J. Alexander and Jerry B. Duvall and Daniel R. Shiman},
+  journal     = {Economic Inquiry},
+  title       = {LEFT FOR DEAD: ANTI‐COMPETITIVE BEHAVIOR IN ORBITAL SPACE},
+  year        = {2019},
+  month       = {04},
+  volume      = {57},
+  doi         = {10.1111/ecin.12790},
+  incitefulid = {7397687},
+  issue       = {3},
+  magid       = {2939271905},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12790},
+}
+
+@Article{Adilov2018,
+  author      = {Nodir Adilov and Peter J. Alexander and Brendan Cunningham},
+  journal     = {Economics Letters},
+  title       = {An economic “Kessler Syndrome”: A dynamic model of earth orbit debris},
+  year        = {2018},
+  issn        = {0165-1765},
+  pages       = {79–82},
+  volume      = {166},
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.econlet.2018.02.025},
+  incitefulid = {166315978},
+  magid       = {2789696176},
+  publisher   = {Economics Letters},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.02.025},
+}
+
+@Article{Grzelka2019,
+  author      = {Zachary Grzelka and Jeffrey Wagner},
+  journal     = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
+  title       = {Managing Satellite Debris in Low-Earth Orbit: Incentivizing Ex Ante Satellite Quality and Ex Post Take-Back Programs},
+  year        = {2019},
+  issn        = {0924-6460},
+  number      = {1},
+  pages       = {319–336},
+  volume      = {74},
+  doi         = {10.1007/s10640-019-00320-3},
+  incitefulid = {15513063},
+  issue       = {1},
+  magid       = {2913247630},
+  publisher   = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-019-00320-3},
+}
+
+@Article{Adilov2015,
+  author      = {Nodir Adilov and Peter J. Alexander and Brendan Cunningham},
+  journal     = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
+  title       = {An Economic Analysis of Earth Orbit Pollution},
+  year        = {2015},
+  issn        = {0924-6460},
+  number      = {1},
+  pages       = {81–98},
+  volume      = {60},
+  doi         = {10.1007/s10640-013-9758-4},
+  incitefulid = {150052056},
+  issue       = {1},
+  magid       = {2034490603},
+  publisher   = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-013-9758-4},
+}
+
+@Article{Kessler1978,
+  author      = {Donald J. Kessler and B. G. Cour-Palais},
+  journal     = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
+  title       = {Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt},
+  year        = {1978},
+  number      = {A6},
+  pages       = {2637-2646},
+  volume      = {83},
+  abstract    = {As the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This process parallels certain theories concerning the growth of the asteroid belt. The debris flux in such an earth-orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs. A mathematical model was used to predict the rate at which such a belt might form. Under certain conditions the belt could begin to form within this century and could be a significant problem during the next century. The possibility that numerous unobserved fragments already exist from spacecraft explosions would decrease this time interval. However, early implementation of specialized launch constraints and operational procedures could significantly delay the formation of the belt.},
+  doi         = {10.1029/ja083ia06p02637},
+  eprint      = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637},
+  incitefulid = {126331087},
+  magid       = {2098893304},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1029/ja083ia06p02637},
+}
+
+@Article{Rao2020,
+  author      = {Akhil Rao and Matthew G. Burgess and Daniel T. Kaffine},
+  journal     = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
+  title       = {Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry.},
+  year        = {2020},
+  issn        = {0027-8424},
+  number      = {23},
+  pages       = {12756--12762},
+  volume      = {117},
+  abstract    = {The commercial satellite industry is rapidly expanding. A side effect of this expansion is a growing buildup of space debris that imposes costly collision risk on satellite operators. Proposed solutions to this debris have been primarily technological, but the core of the problem is incentives{\textemdash}satellites are being launched without consideration of the collision risks they impose on other operators. We show that this incentive problem can be solved with an internationally harmonized {\textquotedblleft}orbital-use fee{\textquotedblright} (OUF){\textemdash}a tax on orbiting satellites. Using a coupled physical{\textendash}economic model, we project that an optimally designed OUF could more than quadruple the long-run value of the satellite industry by 2040.The space industry{\textquoteright}s rapid recent growth represents the latest tragedy of the commons. Satellites launched into orbit contribute to{\textemdash}and risk damage from{\textemdash}a growing buildup of space debris and other satellites. Collision risk from this orbital congestion is costly to satellite operators. Technological and managerial solutions{\textemdash}such as active debris removal or end-of-life satellite deorbit guidelines{\textemdash}are currently being explored by regulatory authorities. However, none of these approaches address the underlying incentive problem: satellite operators do not account for costs they impose on each other via collision risk. Here, we show that an internationally harmonized orbital-use fee can correct these incentives and substantially increase the value of the space industry. We construct and analyze a coupled physical{\textendash}economic model of commercial launches and debris accumulation in low-Earth orbit. Similar to carbon taxes, our model projects an optimal fee that rises at a rate of 14\% per year, equal to roughly $235,000 per satellite-year in 2040. The long-run value of the satellite industry would more than quadruple by 2040{\textemdash}increasing from around $600 billion under business as usual to around $3 trillion. In contrast, we project that purely technological solutions are unlikely to fully address the problem of orbital congestion. Indeed, we find debris removal sometimes worsens economic damages from congestion by increasing launch incentives. In other sectors, addressing the tragedy of the commons has often been a game of catch-up with substantial social costs. The infant space industry can avert these costs before they escalate.},
+  doi         = {10.1073/pnas.1921260117},
+  eprint      = {https://www.pnas.org/content/117/23/12756.full.pdf},
+  incitefulid = {16916285},
+  issue       = {23},
+  magid       = {3028737585},
+  publisher   = {National Academy of Sciences},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921260117},
+}
+
+@TechReport{reiland2020,
+  author        = {Nathan Reiland and Aaron J. Rosengren and Renu Malhotra and Claudio Bombardelli},
+  title         = {Assessing and Minimizing Collisions in Satellite Mega-Constellations},
+  year          = {2020},
+  archiveprefix = {arXiv},
+  eprint        = {2002.00430},
+  primaryclass  = {astro-ph.EP},
+}
+
+@Comment{jabref-meta: databaseType:bibtex;}
--- a/CurrentWriting/assets/preambles/BibPreamble.tex
+++ b/CurrentWriting/assets/preambles/BibPreamble.tex
@ -5,6 +5,6 @@

 %%% Setup Bibliography
 \usepackage[backend=biber,style=apa,autocite=inline]{biblatex}
-\addbibresource{../assets/preambles/References.bib}
+\addbibresource{./assets/preambles/References.bib}


--- a/CurrentWriting/assets/preambles/References.bib
+++ b/CurrentWriting/assets/preambles/References.bib
@ -1,15 +1,15 @@
 % Encoding: UTF-8

-@article{46960957,
-   incitefulid = {46960957},
-   title = {Large constellations of small satellites: A survey of near future challenges and missions},
-   magid = {3083163740},
-   url = {http://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace7090133},
-   doi = {10.3390/aerospace7090133},
+@Article{Curzi2020,
  author      = {Giacomo Curzi and Dario Modenini and Paolo Tortora},
+  title       = {Large constellations of small satellites: A survey of near future challenges and missions},
  year        = {2020},
  volume      = {7},
-   issue = {9}
+  doi         = {10.3390/aerospace7090133},
+  incitefulid = {46960957},
+  issue       = {9},
+  magid       = {3083163740},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace7090133},
 }

@article{86503421,
@ -24,17 +24,17 @@
   volume = {160}
 }

-@article{47677809,
-   incitefulid = {47677809},
-   title = {The quest to conquer Earth's space junk problem.},
-   magid = {2891788317},
-   url = {http://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-06170-1},
-   doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06170-1},
+@Article{Witze2018,
  author      = {Alexandra Witze},
-   year = {2018},
  journal     = {Nature},
+  title       = {The quest to conquer Earth's space junk problem.},
+  year        = {2018},
  volume      = {561},
-   issue = {7721}
+  doi         = {10.1038/d41586-018-06170-1},
+  incitefulid = {47677809},
+  issue       = {7721},
+  magid       = {2891788317},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-06170-1},
 }

@article{90020925,
@ -71,16 +71,16 @@
   issue = {5}
 }

-@article{41781267,
-   incitefulid = {41781267},
+@Article{Beal2020,
+  author      = {Sylvain Béal and Marc Deschamps and Hervé Moulin},
+  journal     = {Acta Astronautica},
  title       = {Taxing congestion of the space commons},
+  year        = {2020},
+  volume      = {177},
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.07.036},
+  incitefulid = {41781267},
  magid       = {3046381038},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.07.036},
-   doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.07.036},
-   author = {Sylvain Béal and Marc Deschamps and Hervé Moulin},
-   year = {2020},
-   journal = {Acta Astronautica},
-   volume = {177}
 }

@article{68211731,
@ -107,17 +107,17 @@
   issue = {7}
 }

-@article{28500679,
-   incitefulid = {28500679},
-   title = {Reduction Over Time to Facilitate Peer-to-Peer Barter Relationships},
-   magid = {2051749409},
-   url = {http://doi.org/10.1093/ietisy/e89-d.1.181},
-   doi = {10.1093/ietisy/e89-d.1.181},
+@Article{Saito2006,
  author      = {Kenji Saito and E. Morino and Jun Murai},
-   year = {2006},
  journal     = {IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems},
+  title       = {Reduction Over Time to Facilitate Peer-to-Peer Barter Relationships},
+  year        = {2006},
  volume      = {89},
-   issue = {1}
+  doi         = {10.1093/ietisy/e89-d.1.181},
+  incitefulid = {28500679},
+  issue       = {1},
+  magid       = {2051749409},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1093/ietisy/e89-d.1.181},
 }

@article{201467079,
@ -136,16 +136,16 @@
   year = {1920}
 }

-@article{50032059,
-   incitefulid = {50032059},
+@Article{Felicetti2016,
+  author      = {Leonard Felicetti and M. Reza Emami},
+  journal     = {Acta Astronautica},
  title       = {A multi-spacecraft formation approach to space debris surveillance},
+  year        = {2016},
+  volume      = {127},
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.05.040},
+  incitefulid = {50032059},
  magid       = {2466447974},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.05.040},
-   doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.05.040},
-   author = {Leonard Felicetti and M. Reza Emami},
-   year = {2016},
-   journal = {Acta Astronautica},
-   volume = {127}
 }

@article{102686645,
@ -181,12 +181,12 @@
   issue = {5759}
 }

-@article{46739820,
-   incitefulid = {46739820},
+@Article{Johnson2010,
+  author      = {Nicholas L. Johnson},
  title       = {Orbital Debris: the Growing Threat to Space Operations},
+  year        = {2010},
+  incitefulid = {46739820},
  magid       = {768267261},
-   author = {Nicholas L. Johnson},
-   year = {2010}
 }

@article{108453804,
@ -219,29 +219,29 @@
   year = {2019}
 }

-@article{148697967,
-   incitefulid = {148697967},
-   title = {The economics of orbital debris generation, accumulation, mitigation, and remediation},
-   magid = {3043569725},
-   url = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsse.2020.07.016},
-   doi = {10.1016/j.jsse.2020.07.016},
+@Article{Adilov2020,
  author      = {Nodir Adilov and Peter J. Alexander and Brendan Cunningham},
-   year = {2020},
  journal     = {Journal of Space Safety Engineering},
+  title       = {The economics of orbital debris generation, accumulation, mitigation, and remediation},
+  year        = {2020},
  volume      = {7},
-   issue = {3}
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.jsse.2020.07.016},
+  incitefulid = {148697967},
+  issue       = {3},
+  magid       = {3043569725},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsse.2020.07.016},
 }

-@article{9657629,
-   incitefulid = {9657629},
+@Article{Hilton2019,
+  author      = {Samuel Hilton and Roberto Sabatini and Alessandro Gardi and Hideaki Ogawa and Paolo Teofilatto},
+  journal     = {Progress in Aerospace Sciences},
  title       = {Space traffic management: towards safe and unsegregated space transport operations},
+  year        = {2019},
+  volume      = {105},
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.paerosci.2018.10.006},
+  incitefulid = {9657629},
  magid       = {2912062988},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.paerosci.2018.10.006},
-   doi = {10.1016/j.paerosci.2018.10.006},
-   author = {Samuel Hilton and Roberto Sabatini and Alessandro Gardi and Hideaki Ogawa and Paolo Teofilatto},
-   year = {2019},
-   journal = {Progress in Aerospace Sciences},
-   volume = {105}
 }

@article{188182895,
@ -269,17 +269,17 @@
   issue = {1}
 }

-@article{1761108,
-   incitefulid = {1761108},
-   title = {Collisional cascading: The limits of population growth in low earth orbit},
-   magid = {2047115193},
-   url = {http://doi.org/10.1016/0273-1177(91)90543-s},
-   doi = {10.1016/0273-1177(91)90543-s},
+@Article{Kessler1991,
  author      = {Donald J. Kessler},
-   year = {1991},
  journal     = {Advances in Space Research},
+  title       = {Collisional cascading: The limits of population growth in low earth orbit},
+  year        = {1991},
  volume      = {11},
-   issue = {12}
+  doi         = {10.1016/0273-1177(91)90543-s},
+  incitefulid = {1761108},
+  issue       = {12},
+  magid       = {2047115193},
+  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/0273-1177(91)90543-s},
 }

@article{214405798,
@ -305,14 +305,14 @@
   year = {2016}
 }

-@article{29350079,
-   incitefulid = {29350079},
+@Article{Georgescu2019,
+  author      = {Alexandru Georgescu and Adrian V. Gheorghe and Marius-Ioan Piso and Polinpapilinho F. Katina},
  title       = {Critical Space Infrastructure Protection},
+  year        = {2019},
+  doi         = {10.1007/978-3-030-12604-9_6},
+  incitefulid = {29350079},
  magid       = {2923440499},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12604-9_6},
-   doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-12604-9_6},
-   author = {Alexandru Georgescu and Adrian V. Gheorghe and Marius-Ioan Piso and Polinpapilinho F. Katina},
-   year = {2019}
 }

@article{212272895,
@ -352,16 +352,16 @@
   volume = {115}
 }

-@article{27222000,
-   incitefulid = {27222000},
+@Article{McKnight2013,
+  author      = {Darren S. McKnight and Frank Di Pentino},
+  journal     = {Acta Astronautica},
  title       = {New insights on the orbital debris collision hazard at GEO},
+  year        = {2013},
+  volume      = {85},
+  doi         = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.12.006},
+  incitefulid = {27222000},
  magid       = {2073559259},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.12.006},
-   doi = {10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.12.006},
-   author = {Darren S. McKnight and Frank Di Pentino},
-   year = {2013},
-   journal = {Acta Astronautica},
-   volume = {85}
 }

@article{154074416,
@ -421,12 +421,12 @@
   year = {2016}
 }

-@article{42714011,
-   incitefulid = {42714011},
+@Article{2019,
+  author      = {nasa},
  title       = {Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA's Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs},
+  year        = {2019},
+  incitefulid = {42714011},
  magid       = {3031733127},
-   author = {nasa},
-   year = {2019}
 }

@article{262509284,
@ -579,7 +579,7 @@ JEL Classification Nos.: H4, Q2},
  url    = {https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/ricetalk.htm},
 }

-@Article{7397687,
+@Article{Adilov2019,
  author      = {Nodir Adilov and Brendan Cunningham and Peter J. Alexander and Jerry B. Duvall and Daniel R. Shiman},
  journal     = {Economic Inquiry},
  title       = {LEFT FOR DEAD: ANTI‐COMPETITIVE BEHAVIOR IN ORBITAL SPACE},
@ -608,7 +608,7 @@ JEL Classification Nos.: H4, Q2},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.02.025},
 }

-@Article{15513063,
+@Article{Grzelka2019,
  author      = {Zachary Grzelka and Jeffrey Wagner},
  journal     = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
  title       = {Managing Satellite Debris in Low-Earth Orbit: Incentivizing Ex Ante Satellite Quality and Ex Post Take-Back Programs},
@ -625,7 +625,7 @@ JEL Classification Nos.: H4, Q2},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-019-00320-3},
 }

-@Article{150052056,
+@Article{Adilov2015,
  author      = {Nodir Adilov and Peter J. Alexander and Brendan Cunningham},
  journal     = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
  title       = {An Economic Analysis of Earth Orbit Pollution},
@ -658,7 +658,7 @@ JEL Classification Nos.: H4, Q2},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1029/ja083ia06p02637},
 }

-@Article{16916285,
+@Article{Rao2020,
  author      = {Akhil Rao and Matthew G. Burgess and Daniel T. Kaffine},
  journal     = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  title       = {Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry.},
--- a/CurrentWriting/sections/00_Introduction.tex
+++ b/CurrentWriting/sections/00_Introduction.tex
@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ The primary concern expressed in many of the published papers is whether or not
 due to their common-pool nature, and which policies may prevent kessler syndrome.
 On this topic, Adilov, Alexander, and Cunningham examine pollution
 using a two-period salop model, incorporating the effects of launch debris on 
-survival into the second period\autocite{adilov_alexander_cunningham_2015}. 
+survival into the second period\autocite{Adilov2015}. 
 They find that the social planner generates debris and launches at lower rates 
 than a free entry market.

@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ and the ways in which various policies encourage or discourage optimal decision
 This work is mainly a theoretical expansion of two models:
 \begin{itemize}
    \item Rao and Rondina's model \autocite{RaoRondina2020} dynamic model.
-    \item Adilov et al's \autocite{adilov_alexander_cunningham_2018} dynamic model.
+    \item Adilov et al's \autocite{Adilov2018} dynamic model.
 \end{itemize}
 In addition to the expansion, I contribute a general computational solver that allows
 us to examine complex scenarios similar to those encountered in actual policymaking.
--- a/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.tex
+++ b/CurrentWriting/sections/02_KesslerSyndrome.tex
@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ orbits are rendered physically useless.
 Unfortunately, it does not convey the original intent of ``kessler syndrome'',
 i.e. a runaway pollution effect, but instead corresponds to the end result of kessler syndrome.

-The second definition of ``kessler syndrome'' is due to \cite{RaoRondina}.
+The second definition of ``kessler syndrome'' is due to \cite{RaoRondina2020}.
 They define it in terms of a ``kessler region'', the set of satellite stocks and the debris level
 such that the limit of debris in the future is infinite.
 Mathematically this can be represented as:
@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ constitutes as kessler syndrome.

 \subsection{Two approaches to kessler syndrome}
 I propose to analyze kessler syndrome in two slightly more restricted 
-fashions than \cite{RaoRondina}, for which I term the regions
+fashions than \cite{RaoRondina2020}, for which I term the regions
 the $\epsilon$-kessler region and the proto-kesslerian region.

 First, define the $\epsilon$-kessler region as:
--- a/CurrentWriting/sections/03_SurvivalAnalysis.tex
+++ b/CurrentWriting/sections/03_SurvivalAnalysis.tex
@ -2,10 +2,10 @@
 \graphicspath{{\subfix{Assets/img/}}}

 \begin{document}
-In his dissertation \cite{RaoDissertation} briefly examines the ''survival rates" of 
+In his dissertation \cite{Rao:Dissertation} briefly examines the ''survival rates" of 
 a satellite constellation.
 Applying the same analysis to this formulation of the law of motion 
-for satellite stocks (\cref{Add in}) clarifies some details on risk burdens
+for satellite stocks (\cref{SEC:Laws}) clarifies some details on risk burdens
 with highly asymmectical conditions.
 %This approach allows us to construct a elasticity of survival and satellite additions, 
 %i.e. an elasticity of risk.