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@ -7,24 +7,40 @@ i.e. constellation-level satellite stocks and debris.
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These laws are the foundations to the results found in \cref{SEC:Kessler,SEC:Survival}, and
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are crucial elements of the models presented in sections \cref{SEC:Operator,SEC:Planner}.
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\subsubsection{Mathematical Preliminaries}
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Throughout the remainder of the paper, the following notation will be used.
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Superscripts $s^i$ denote satellite constellations while
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subscripts $s_t$ denote time periods.
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\begin{itemize}
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\item $s^i_t$ represents the number of satellites in a constellation $i$ in period $t$.
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This is often referred to as the satellite ``stock'' of a constellation.
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\item $x^i_t$ represents the number of satellites launched as part of constellation $i$
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in period $t$
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\item $D_t$ represents the level of debris at period $t$.
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\end{itemize}
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In the case of satellite stocks, often the set of stocks for each constellation needs to
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be discussed.
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I've used curly braces around to denote this set, i.e. $\{ s^j_t \}$ represents the set
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of constellations stocks, ordered by index $j$.
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\subsubsection{Satellite Stocks}
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Each constellation consists of a number of satellites in orbit, controlled by the same operator and
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operated for the same purpose.
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Satellites can be destroyed by collisions with other satellites or debris.
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Of course, satellite stocks can be increased by launching more satellites.
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Assuming satellites live indefinitely, these facts give us the following law of motion for each
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constellation $i$.
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Assuming satellites are not actively deorbited, we get the
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following general law of motion for each constellation $i$.
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\begin{align}
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S^i_{t+1} = \left( 1 - l^i(\{s^j_t\}, D_t)\right)s^i_t + x^i_t
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s^i_{t+1} = \left( 1 - l^i(\{s^j_t\}, D_t)\right)s^i_t + x^i_t
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%Couple of Notes:
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% This does not allow for natural decay of satellites.
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% Nor does it include a deorbit decision.
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%
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%
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% Representing those might be:
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% - \eta s^i_t - y^i_t
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\end{align}
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Where $l^i(\cdot)$ represents the rate at which satellites are destroyed by collisions.
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Note that it is reasonable to assume that the loss of satellites to collisions should be
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increasing in the level of debris: $\parder{l^i}{D_t}{} >0$.
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Where $l^i(\cdot)$ represents the rate at which satellites are destroyed by collisions, i.e.
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the satellite loss function.
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%Assumption:
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\subsubsection{Collision Efficiencies}
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%TODO: Explain bit about constellation collision efficiencies.
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@ -34,33 +50,34 @@ I assume that when designing a constellation, the operator chooses to minimize c
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and as a result, there is a greater relative risk of inter-constellation collision.
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It is reasonable to ask why operators would not use the same techniques to reduce
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inter-constellation collision risks?
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inter-constellation collision risks.
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While some of the steps could be taken, a fundamental issue arises in that constellations
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are operated for different purposes and require different orbital properties.
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%Maybe 2 operators can place themselves in low risk orbits, but adding a 3rd increases the risk to all of them.
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%This could be explained as Coordination across time (time travel doesn't exist yet)
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This coordination is also complicated by the fact that constellations are not
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designed nor launched at the same time.
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Thus although an operator may choos to minimize their total risk when launching
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a constellation, later constellation formation will often add to the total risk.
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Consequently an operator may choos to minimize their total risk when launching
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a constellation, the later launch of constellations may lead to a suboptimal orbit design.
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It is important to note that satellite-on-satellite collisions are rare\footnote{
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I am only aware of one collision between satellites,
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and one of them was abandon at the time.\cref{ListOfOrbitalIncidents}
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and one of them was abandoned at the time.\cref{ListOfOrbitalIncidents}
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}
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but this is due to the fact that satellites that evasive maneuvers are usually taken
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but this may be due to the fact that evasive maneuvers are usually taken
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when collisions appear reasonably possible.
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Consequent to these reasons, I believe the loss function $l^i$ should have the
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following properties related to satellite stocks.
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These collision efficiencies can be represented in the satellite loss function $l^i$ when:
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\begin{align}
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\parder{l^i}{s^k_t}{} > 0 ~~\forall k \in \{1,\dots,N)\\
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\parder{l^i}{s^j_t}{} > \parder{l^i}{s^i_t}{} ~~\forall j\neq i
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\end{align}
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Notably, an additional satellite in any constellation increases the probability of loosing
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Note that an additional satellite in any constellation increases the probability of loosing
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a satellite from a given constellation, and this risk is lower
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for the home of the additional satellite.
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for the home constellation of the additional satellite.
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Note that it is reasonable to assume that the loss of satellites to collisions should be
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increasing in the level of debris: $\parder{l^i}{D_t}{} >0$.
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\subsection{Debris}
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Debris is generated by various processes, including:
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@ -76,7 +93,7 @@ Debris is generated by various processes, including:
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all generate more debris.
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\end{itemize}
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It leaves orbit when atmospheric drag slows it down enough to reenter the atmosphere.
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Because the atmosphere is so negligible for many orbits, reentry can easily take decades
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Because the atmosphere is negligible for many orbits, reentry can easily take decades
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or centuries.
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These effects can be represented by the following general law of motion.
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@ -89,6 +106,7 @@ For simplicity, I formulate this more specifically as:
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+ \sum^N_{i=1} \vec \gamma l^i(\{s^j_t\},D_t)
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+ \vec \Gamma \sum^n_{j=1} \{x^j_t\}
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\end{align}
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%WORKING HERE
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where $\vec \Gamma,\vec \gamma$ represent the debris generated by each
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launch and collision respectively,
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while $\delta,g(\cdot)$ represent the decay rate of debris and the
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