Update 'Concept paper 2022 02 09'

Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md

@@ -45,8 +45,8 @@ The probabalistic model could then be used to answer various questions, includin
 It would also be straightforward to develop simulations from this approach, as the probabilities are right there.
 
 # Estimation Strategy
-Probably use a non-parametric bayesian approach to estimating the probability densities?
-[AbrantesMetz-Adams-and-Metz] use a hazards model.
+Probably use a non-parametric bayesian approach to estimating the probability densities.
+[[AbrantesMetz-Adams-and-Metz]] use a mixed state proportional hazards model.
 
 ## Phase Completion Probabilities:
 
@@ -61,6 +61,8 @@ I may also include the combined phases
 - P(completing combined phase 1-2 & duration phase 1-2 | Data)
 - P(completing combined phase 2-2 & duration phase 2-3 | Data & transitioned to phase 2 & duration phase 1)
 
+I think there might be a way of condensing these using "phase endpoints" as a marker, and not the phase type itself.
+
 ## Phase Transition Probabilities:
 
 The goal is to estimate