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@ -104,6 +104,10 @@ They find that when Medicare part D was implemented -- increasing senior
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citizens' ability to pay for drugs -- there was a (delayed) increase
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in drug development, with effects concentrated among compounds that were least
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innovative according to their classification of innovations.
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They suggest that this is due to financial risk management, as novel
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pharmaceuticals have a higher probability of failure compared to the less novel
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follow up development.
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This is what leads risk-adverse companies to prefer follow up development.
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% Acemoglu and Linn
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@ -124,12 +128,25 @@ Among non-generics, a 1\% increase in potential market size
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\cite{gupta_OneProduct_2020} discovered that uncertainty around which patents
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might apply to a novel drug causes a delay in the entry of generics after
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the primary patent has expired.
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She found that this delay averages around 3 years.
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She found that this delay in delivery is around 3 years.
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% Agarwal and Gaule 2022
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% - Retrospective on impact from COVID-19 pandemic
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% Not in this version
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%DiMasi FeldmanSeckler Wilson 2009
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\cite{dimasi_TrendsRisks_2010} examine the completion rate of clinical drug
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develompent and find that for the 50 largest drug producers,
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approximately X\% of their drugs under developm
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successfully completed the process.
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They note a couple of changes in how drugs are developed over the years they
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study (clinical development started between 1993 and 2004).
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This included that drugs began to fail earlier in their development cycle in the
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latter half of the time they studied.
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This may be an operational change to reduce the cost of new drugs.
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\cite{dimasi_ValueImproving_2002}
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used data on 68 investigational drugs from 10 firms to simulate how reducing
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time in development adds to the
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\end{document}
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