diff --git a/Latex/Paper/sections/05_LitReview.tex b/Latex/Paper/sections/05_LitReview.tex index e3177e1..97ea175 100644 --- a/Latex/Paper/sections/05_LitReview.tex +++ b/Latex/Paper/sections/05_LitReview.tex @@ -104,6 +104,10 @@ They find that when Medicare part D was implemented -- increasing senior citizens' ability to pay for drugs -- there was a (delayed) increase in drug development, with effects concentrated among compounds that were least innovative according to their classification of innovations. +They suggest that this is due to financial risk management, as novel +pharmaceuticals have a higher probability of failure compared to the less novel +follow up development. +This is what leads risk-adverse companies to prefer follow up development. % Acemoglu and Linn @@ -124,12 +128,25 @@ Among non-generics, a 1\% increase in potential market size \cite{gupta_OneProduct_2020} discovered that uncertainty around which patents might apply to a novel drug causes a delay in the entry of generics after the primary patent has expired. -She found that this delay averages around 3 years. +She found that this delay in delivery is around 3 years. % Agarwal and Gaule 2022 % - Retrospective on impact from COVID-19 pandemic % Not in this version %DiMasi FeldmanSeckler Wilson 2009 +\cite{dimasi_TrendsRisks_2010} examine the completion rate of clinical drug +develompent and find that for the 50 largest drug producers, +approximately X\% of their drugs under developm +successfully completed the process. +They note a couple of changes in how drugs are developed over the years they +study (clinical development started between 1993 and 2004). +This included that drugs began to fail earlier in their development cycle in the +latter half of the time they studied. +This may be an operational change to reduce the cost of new drugs. + +\cite{dimasi_ValueImproving_2002} +used data on 68 investigational drugs from 10 firms to simulate how reducing +time in development adds to the \end{document}