adding current work

Latex/Paper/outline3.txt

@@ -5,9 +5,9 @@ How do I begin work on stuff
         - we can't trust what we are told
         - terminations could be due to safety, strategic, or operational concerns.
     - explaining confounding between 
+        - population/market and enrollment.
         -population/market and market conditions.
         - market conditions and enrollment. 
-        - population/market and enrollment.
     - describe other confounders
         - safety and effectiveness
         - duration <--> enrollment/termination
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ How do I begin work on stuff
 - Introduce Do-Calculus
     - DAG model
     - What do I need to control for, in some form or other?
+        CURRENTLY HERE:
 - Introduce Data
     - Clinical Trial Progression
         - AACT gives us information on

Latex/Paper/sections/10_CausalStory.tex

@@ -244,21 +244,35 @@ A quick summary of the nodes of the DAG and their impact:
                 $\rightarrow$ 
                 \texttt{Enrollment Status}:
                 This confounds the estimation of the effect of 
+                \texttt{Enrollment} on \texttt{Will Terminate?}, and 
+                so \texttt{Market Measures} is part of the adjustment set.
             \item 
                 \texttt{Market Measures} 
                 $\rightarrow$ 
                 \texttt{Decision to proceed with Phase III}:
                 The alternative treatments on the market will affect a sponsors'
                 decision to move forward with a Phase III trial.
+                This is controlled for by only working with trials that 
+                successfully begin recruitment for a Phase III Trial.
             \item 
                 \texttt{Elapsed Duration} 
                 $\rightarrow$ 
                 \texttt{Will Terminate?}:
+                The amount of time past helps drive the decision to continue
+                or terminate.
             \item 
                 \texttt{Enrollment Status} 
                 $\leftrightarrow$ 
                 \texttt{Elapsed Duration}:
                 % This is jointly determined. and the weakest part of the causal identification without an accurate model of enrollment.
+                This is one of the weakest parts of the causal inference. 
+                Without a well defined model of enrollment, we can't separate
+                the interaction between the enrollment status and the elapsed
+                duration. 
+                For example, if enrollment is running slower than expected,
+                the trial may be terminated due to concerns that it will not
+                achive the primary objectives or that costs will exceed 
+                the budget allocated to the project.
             \item 
                 \texttt{Decision to Proceed with Phase III} 
                 $\rightarrow$