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@ -47,19 +47,16 @@ Thus being able to isolate the effect of operational challenges from
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strategic decisions allows us to predict the intended or unintended effects
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strategic decisions allows us to predict the intended or unintended effects
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of a given policy on clinical trials.
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of a given policy on clinical trials.
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In this work, I propose a model of clinical trial progression that allows
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In this work, I focus on separating the effects of enrollment and
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me to separate the effects of competing drugs (a strategic concern)
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competing drugs on clinical trial completion, specifically Phase III trials.
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and struggles recruiting (an operational concern).
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To do this, I create a
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I also use a novel dataset extracted from
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dataset extracted from
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\url{ClinicalTrials.gov}
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\url{ClinicalTrials.gov}
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that tracks individual clinical trials as they progress towards completion
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that tracks individual clinical trials as they progress towards completion
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to estimate the effects of competing drugs and difficulty recruiting.
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as well as a novel causal model of individual clinical trial progression.
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Similar to
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Unlike previous research which is focused on the drug development pipeline, I
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\cite{hwang_failure_2016}
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restrict my investigation to modelling individual clinical trials.
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I focus on clinical trials in Phase III trials for drug compounds.
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The goal of this restriction is to provide a way to predict the impact
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Not all of these trials will be to test novel compounds, as many
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of changes that affect enrollment independent of other confounding effects.
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are trials to use previously approved compounds for new indications
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or in combination with other treatments.
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\end{document}
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\end{document}
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