added current presentation draft

Latex/Presentation/presentation.tex

@@ -196,7 +196,7 @@ Washington State University \\ % Your institution for the title page
         \item current status
     \end{itemize}
 
-	ClinicalTrials.gov also reports the ``history'' from previous
+    ClinicalTrials.gov also reports the history from previous
     updates.
 \end{frame}
 
@@ -216,7 +216,111 @@ Washington State University \\ % Your institution for the title page
 % - Introduce backdoor criterion
 %--------------------------------
 
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Framing my Questions}
+    Two potential causes of trial termination include 
+    \begin{enumerate}
+        \item Alternative (competitor) treatments exist
+            \begin{itemize}
+                \item reduces future profitability.
+                \item reduces incentives to enroll as participants.
+            \end{itemize}
+        \item It can be difficult to recruit patients
+            \begin{itemize}
+                \item Are there few patients?
+                \item Are potential participants choosing other alternatives?
+            \end{itemize}
+    \end{enumerate}
+    Overall this can be described graphically as:
+
+    INSERT IMAGE OF 4 NODES HERE
+
+
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Causal Identification: Backdoor Criterion}
+    %Discuss the two different effects: total effect, direct effects
+
+    \begin{columns}
+    \begin{column}{0.5\textwidth}
+        Total Effect of Competitors
+
+        INSERT TOTAL EFFECT GRAPH
+    \end{column}
+    \begin{column}{0.5\textwidth}
+        Direct Effects of Competitors and Enrollment
+
+        INSERT DIRECT EFFECT GRAPH
+    \end{column}
+    \end{columns}
+\end{frame}
+
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Rephrasing Questions}
+    To rephrase my questions
+    \begin{enumerate}
+        \item How large is the total effect of increasing the number of competing drugs on completing clinical trials?
+        \item How large is the direct effect of increasing the number of competing drugs on completing clincial trials?
+    \end{enumerate}
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Additional Concerns}
+    %Confounders 
+    Of course, there are other confounding relationships
+    \begin{enumerate}
+        \item Population Effects
+        \item Fundamental Safety and Efficacy of compound/dosage/route
+    \end{enumerate}
+
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Complete graph}
+    %introduce backdoor criterion
+
+    INSERT COMPLETE GRAPH HERE
+
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Causal Identification: Backdoor Criterion}
+    %introduce backdoor criterion
+
+    \cite{PEARLYYYY} developed a method of verifying causal identification from DAGs like the one I presented.
+
+    Of particular interest is the rule called the Backdoor criterion:
+
+    INSERT DESCRIPTION OF THE BACK DOOR CRITERION    
+
+
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Sufficent Adjustment Set}
+    %introduce backdoor criterion
 
+    INSERT COMPLETE GRAPH HERE with adjustment set highlighted
+
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Sufficent Adjustment Set}
+    %introduce backdoor criterion
+
+    Thus the required adjustment set includes:
+
+    \begin{itemize}
+        \item Population Measures
+        \item Safety and Efficacy Measures
+        \item INSERT MORE
+    \end{itemize}
+
+
+\end{frame}
 %-------------------------------
 \begin{frame}
     \frametitle{Questions?}
@@ -236,6 +340,84 @@ Washington State University \\ % Your institution for the title page
 % - Data Sizes
 %--------------------------------
 
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Data Sources}
+    %TODO: add citations
+    Data sources
+    \begin{itemize}
+        \item ClinicalTrials.gov
+            \begin{itemize}
+                \item AACT-CTTI
+                \item Scraping historical snapshots
+            \end{itemize}
+        \item ICD-10 (CMS and WHO)
+        \item IHME Global Burden of Disease
+        \item Structured Product Labels
+        \item USP Drug Classification
+        \item Drugs@FDA: RxNav / RxNorm / MeSH
+    \end{itemize}
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Linking data}
+    %
+    The following linking process was used:
+    \begin{enumerate}
+        \item AACT trials to snapshots (internal ID)
+        \item AACT trials to ICD-10 (hand match)
+        \item ICD-10 to IHME (IHME)
+        \item Snapshots to drug brands (RxNorm/RxNav/MeSh, SPL)
+        \item AACT to USP DC alternates (RxNorm, USP DC, hand match)
+    \end{enumerate}
+
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Measures of Causes and Effects}
+    
+    \begin{itemize}
+        \item Final Status: Measured from AACT - status when trial is over.
+        \item Competitors on Market: Measured by the number of drugs
+            \begin{itemize}
+                \item with same active ingredients (at the time of the snapshot)
+                \item sharing the USP DC category and class (in 2023)
+            \end{itemize}
+        \item Enrollment: Measured by enrollment status at the snapshot level.
+    \end{itemize}
+
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Adjustment set}
+    \begin{itemize}
+        \item Population Measures
+            \begin{itemize}
+                \item IHME Global Disease Burden: QUALYs, spread over 5 levels of the Social Development Index
+            \end{itemize}
+        \item Beliefs about safety \& efficacy: Restricted to Phase 3 trials.
+        \item Disease Type: Hierarchal parameters in model
+    \end{itemize}
+
+    Note the implicit conditioning on trials treating diseases with IHME data\footnote{
+        IHME does not track data for W61.62XD: Struck by duck, subsequent encounter
+    }.
+
+\end{frame}
+%-------------------------------
+\begin{frame}
+    \frametitle{Other Details}
+
+    Other Trial Selection Criteria
+    \begin{itemize}
+        \item Interventional Study
+        \item Involved an FDA Regulated Drug
+        \item Phase 3 trial
+        \item Started after 2010-01-01
+        \item Ended before 2022-01-01
+    \end{itemize}
+
+\end{frame}
 %-------------------------------
 \begin{frame}
     \frametitle{Questions?}