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80 lines
3.3 KiB
Plaintext
80 lines
3.3 KiB
Plaintext
# Intro
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Why do we care
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Possible stories:
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sep 2019
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2020 - 3 near misses with ISS (https://www.jpost.com/science/international-space-station-nearly-struck-by-chinese-satellite-debris-684809) (https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/pdfs/odqnv24i3.pdf)
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May 2020 - Fregat tank breakup (left debris from 1000 to 6000 miles in altitude)
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May 2021 - Canadarm2 got hit (https://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/iss/news.asp, part way down)
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Nov 2021 - Dodge debris from anti-satellite test in 2007 (China) (Jerusalem post above)
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Nasa releases a
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Monday Nov 15, 2021 - ISS astronauts have to shelter in their exit craft due to a debris cloud nearing the ISS. (https://www.space.com/space-debris-astronauts-shelter-november-2021) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-LIh0fdfq8)
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- from youtube: limits the set of experiments they can work with.
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Maybe explain the whole section.
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Why should we care?
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- All orbits are subject to some degree of polution.
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- Common uses: GPS, Military Communications, Commercial internet and TV.
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- Exploratory uses: R&D of pharmaceuticals, exploration.
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- Collisions and debris damage are to some degree inevitable.
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- Kessler Syndrome
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What is different now:
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- Launch costs (https://aerospace.csis.org/data/space-launch-to-low-earth-orbit-how-much-does-it-cost/) (https://fortune.com/2017/06/17/spacex-launch-cost-competition/)
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- Cubesats/nanosats (numbers at https://www.nanosats.eu/)
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- in short, accessability. With lower cost per mass to orbit, more reasons to go. With lower development costs, easier to build many small satellites. This gives us a need for urgency.
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- Anti-Satellite missles (US, RU, CH all have capability)
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- Starlink vs Kupiter vs OneWeb (UK gov)
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# Present previous literature
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Rao Rondina
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- Major results: exploitation of common pool resource
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Adilov et al
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- Major results: Exploitation of common pool resource
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Adilov et al
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- Major results: Divergence between economic and non-economic kessler syndromes
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# my model
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- Kessler Syndrome work
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- Model description
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# Solution methods
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- Issues
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- High dimensionality
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- Many Firms, Governments, and other organizations (How many different operators currently?)
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- Interacting debris fields between orbits (see the Fregat breakup)
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- Approximation is required
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- state space discretization
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- Not sure which states to examine
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- fuctional approximation
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- Maliar
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- Reinforcemnt learning
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- Choice of using NN approach
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- Well supported on hardware
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- Transfer learning
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# Analysis
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# major points
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- Summaries of results so far.
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- Request for suggestions on utility functions that might be worth investigating
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- Discussion of goals
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- Investigate pigouvian taxation, cleanup bonds, etc.
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- Standardize interface so it is easy to estimate results.
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- Discussion of other work that should happen
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- Estimation of parameters (simulation, bayesian, calibration, best guesstimates, etc)
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- Rights of way work (way to get operators to declare a no-move value?)
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- Satellite Lifetime Management and it's impact on decision making. (nested overlapping generations?)
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Other sources
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Historical breakup events: https://www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/pdfs/odqnv23i1.pdf
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Breakups: https://www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/pdfs/odqnv25i1.pdf
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Newsletter on debris breakups: https://www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/
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