% Encoding: UTF-8 @Misc{EsaTweet, author = {ESA}, title = {For the first time ever, ESA has performed a 'collision avoidance manoeuvre' to protect one of its satellites from colliding with a 'mega constellation' \#SpaceTraffic}, addendum = {https://twitter.com/esaoperations}, date = {2019-09-02}, nameaddon = {\@ESAOperations}, } @Electronic{ArsTechnicaStatement, author = {Brodkin, Jon}, howpublished = {Online Article}, language = {English}, note = {Statement from SpaceX to ARS Technica}, organization = {Ars Technica}, title = {SpaceX satellite was on “collision course” until ESA satellite was re-routed}, url = {https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/09/spacex-satellite-was-on-collision-course-until-esa-satellite-was-re-routed/}, date = {2019-09-03}, } @Electronic{EsaBlog, author = {ESA}, howpublished = {Online}, language = {English}, organization = {European Space Agency}, title = {ESA spacecraft dodges large constellation}, url = {http://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/ESA_spacecraft_dodges_large_constellation}, date = {2019-09-03}, } @PhdThesis{Rao:Dissertation, author = {Rao, Akhil}, school = {University of Colorado}, title = {The Economics of Orbit Use: Theory, Policy, and Practice}, year = {2019}, } @Article{adilov_alexander_cunningham_2015, author = {Adilov and Alexander and Cunningham}, journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics}, title = {An Economic Analysis of Earth Orbit Pollution}, year = {2015}, issn = {0924-6460}, number = {1}, pages = {81–98}, volume = {60}, doi = {10.1007/s10640-013-9758-4}, publisher = {Environmental and Resource Economics}, } @Article{Macauley_1998, author = {Macauley, Molly K}, journal = {The Journal of Law and Economics}, title = {Allocation of Orbit and Spectrum Resources for Regional Communications: What's At Stake?}, year = {1998}, issn = {0022-2186}, number = {S2}, pages = {737–764}, volume = {41}, abstract = {Contentious debate surrounds allocation of the geostationary orbit and electromagneticspectrum, two resources used by communications satellites. An extensive economicsliterature alleges that the nonmarket administrative allocative procedures now in place arehighly inefficient, but no research has empirically estimated the welfare loss. This paperdevelops a conceptual framework and a computerized model to estimate the economic valueof the resources, the size and distribution of welfare costs associated with the presentregulatory regime, and the potential gains from more market-like allocation. Key Words: outer space, communications satellites, pricing natural resources JEL Classification Nos.: H4, Q2}, doi = {10.1086/467411}, publisher = {The Journal of Law and Economics}, } @InBook{brillinger_2001, author = {Brillinger, David R.}, pages = {105–116}, title = {Space Debris: Flux in a Two Dimensional Orbit}, year = {2001}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-0348-8326-9_8}, } @Article{Adilov2018a, author = {Adilov and Alexander and Cunningham}, title = {Corrigendum to “An economic “Kessler Syndrome”: A dynamic model of earth orbit debris” [Econom. Lett. 166 (2018) 79–82]}, year = {2018}, issn = {0165-1765}, pages = {185}, volume = {170}, doi = {10.1016/j.econlet.2018.04.012}, } @Misc{Kessler1990, author = {Donald Kessler}, title = {Orbital debris environment for spacecraft in low earth orbit}, year = {1990}, doi = {10.2514/6.1990-1353}, } @Article{Adilov, author = {Adilov and Alexander and Cunningham}, title = {Earth Orbit Debris: An Economic Model}, year = {2015}, issn = {1556-5068}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2264915}, } @Article{Kessler1978, author = {Kessler, Donald J. and Cour-Palais, Burton G.}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics}, title = {Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt}, year = {1978}, number = {A6}, pages = {2637-2646}, volume = {83}, abstract = {As the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This process parallels certain theories concerning the growth of the asteroid belt. The debris flux in such an earth-orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs. A mathematical model was used to predict the rate at which such a belt might form. Under certain conditions the belt could begin to form within this century and could be a significant problem during the next century. The possibility that numerous unobserved fragments already exist from spacecraft explosions would decrease this time interval. However, early implementation of specialized launch constraints and operational procedures could significantly delay the formation of the belt.}, doi = {10.1029/JA083iA06p02637}, eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637}, } @Electronic{FAA2020, author = {NA}, howpublished = {Online}, month = oct, note = {Describes altitude of LEO and GEO}, organization = {Federal Aviation Administration}, url = {https://www.faa.gov/space/additional_information/faq/#s1}, year = {2020}, } @TechReport{RaoRondina2020, author = {Rao and Rondina}, institution = {NA}, title = {Cost in Space:Debris and Collision Risk in the Orbital Commons}, year = {2020}, month = feb, note = {Middlebury College | UC San Diego}, type = {Working Paper}, } @Article{Adilov2019, author = {Adilov and Cunningham and Alexander and Duvall and Shiman}, journal = {Economic Inquiry}, title = {LEFT FOR DEAD: ANTI‐COMPETITIVE BEHAVIOR IN ORBITAL SPACE}, year = {2019}, month = {04}, volume = {57}, doi = {10.1111/ecin.12790}, } @Article{Rao2020, author = {Rao and Burgess and Kaffine}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, title = {Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry}, year = {2020}, issn = {0027-8424}, number = {23}, pages = {12756--12762}, volume = {117}, abstract = {The commercial satellite industry is rapidly expanding. A side effect of this expansion is a growing buildup of space debris that imposes costly collision risk on satellite operators. Proposed solutions to this debris have been primarily technological, but the core of the problem is incentives{\textemdash}satellites are being launched without consideration of the collision risks they impose on other operators. We show that this incentive problem can be solved with an internationally harmonized {\textquotedblleft}orbital-use fee{\textquotedblright} (OUF){\textemdash}a tax on orbiting satellites. Using a coupled physical{\textendash}economic model, we project that an optimally designed OUF could more than quadruple the long-run value of the satellite industry by 2040.The space industry{\textquoteright}s rapid recent growth represents the latest tragedy of the commons. Satellites launched into orbit contribute to{\textemdash}and risk damage from{\textemdash}a growing buildup of space debris and other satellites. Collision risk from this orbital congestion is costly to satellite operators. Technological and managerial solutions{\textemdash}such as active debris removal or end-of-life satellite deorbit guidelines{\textemdash}are currently being explored by regulatory authorities. However, none of these approaches address the underlying incentive problem: satellite operators do not account for costs they impose on each other via collision risk. Here, we show that an internationally harmonized orbital-use fee can correct these incentives and substantially increase the value of the space industry. We construct and analyze a coupled physical{\textendash}economic model of commercial launches and debris accumulation in low-Earth orbit. Similar to carbon taxes, our model projects an optimal fee that rises at a rate of 14\% per year, equal to roughly $235,000 per satellite-year in 2040. The long-run value of the satellite industry would more than quadruple by 2040{\textemdash}increasing from around $600 billion under business as usual to around $3 trillion. In contrast, we project that purely technological solutions are unlikely to fully address the problem of orbital congestion. Indeed, we find debris removal sometimes worsens economic damages from congestion by increasing launch incentives. In other sectors, addressing the tragedy of the commons has often been a game of catch-up with substantial social costs. The infant space industry can avert these costs before they escalate.}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1921260117}, eprint = {https://www.pnas.org/content/117/23/12756.full.pdf}, publisher = {National Academy of Sciences}, url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/117/23/12756}, } @Article{GrzelkaWagner2019, author = {Grzelka, Zachary and Wagner, Jeffrey}, journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics}, title = {Managing Satellite Debris in Low-Earth Orbit: Incentivizing Ex Ante Satellite Quality and Ex Post Take-Back Programs}, year = {2019}, issn = {0924-6460}, number = {1}, pages = {319–336}, volume = {74}, doi = {10.1007/s10640-019-00320-3}, publisher = {Environmental and Resource Economics}, } @Misc{Kennedy1962, author = {John F. Kennedy}, month = sep, title = {Address at Rice University on the Nation's Space Effort}, year = {1962}, url = {https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/ricetalk.htm}, } @Article{adilov_alexander_cunningham_2018, author = {Adilov and Alexander and Cunningham}, journal = {Economics Letters}, title = {An economic “Kessler Syndrome”: A dynamic model of earth orbit debris}, year = {2018}, issn = {0165-1765}, pages = {79–82}, volume = {166}, doi = {10.1016/j.econlet.2018.02.025}, publisher = {Economics Letters}, } @Comment{jabref-meta: databaseType:bibtex;}