\documentclass[../Main.tex]{subfiles} \graphicspath{{\subfix{Assets/img/}}} \begin{document} With the laws of motion introduced in sections \cref{SEC:Laws}, we can now describe the optimization problem facing each constellation operator. Each operator recieve utility in each period per their per period utility $u^i(\vec s_t,D_t)$, which depends on the current sizes of constellations and the level of debris. In addition, the operator pays for the launch of $x^i_t$ satellites according to the cost function $F(x)$. These satellites will become operational in the next period. Thus the $M$-period (possibly infinite), problem is: \begin{align} \max_{\{\vec x_t\}^M}&~ E\left[ \sum^M_{t=0} \beta^t u^i(\vec s_t, D_t) - F(x^i_t) \right] \\ &\text{subject to:}\\ & s^i_{t+1} = (1-l^i(\vec s_t, D_t))s^i_t +x^i_t ~~~ \forall i \\ & D_{t+1} = (1-\delta)D_t + g(D_t) + \gamma \sum^N_{i=1} l^i(\vec s_t, D_t) + \Gamma \sum^N_{i=1} x^i_t \end{align} %Assumptions % - Identical launch costs % - Identical debris production from destruction. % \subsection{Infinite Period (Bellman) Equation} The inifinite period version of the problem above can be rewritten in the bellman form as \begin{align} V^i(\vec s_t, \vec x^{\sim i}_t, D_t) = \max_{x^i_t} u^i(\vec s_t, D_t) -F(x) + \beta \left[ V^i(\vec s_{t+1}, \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}, D_{t+1}) \right] \end{align} where $x^{\sim i}_t$ represents the launch decisions of all the other constellation operators. This implies that the policy function is a best response function, allowing for a nash equilibrium interpretation of the result. To solve for the policy function, we have a variety of methods available. Due to the computational method chosen later, I'm going to examine the conditions for the existence of an euler equation. \subsubsection{Euler Equation} Appendix \cref{APX:Derivations:EulerEquations} contains more details on the math involved. What follows is just a sketch of the method in matrix notation. As there is only one choice variable, we get a single optimality condition. It can be written in various formats, with the latter matching the appendix the best. \begin{align} % 0 =& \parder{}{x^i_t}{} u^i(\vec s_t, D_t) -\parder{}{x^i_t}{}F(x) % + \beta \left[ \parder{}{x^i_t}{} % V^i(\vec s_{t+1}, \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}, D_{t+1}) % \right] \\ 0 =& -\der{F}{x^i_t}{} + \beta \left[ \nabla_{x^i_t} [ \vec s_{t+1}, \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}, D_{t+1} ] \cdot \nabla_{\vec s_{t+1}, \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}, D_{t+1}} V^i(\vec s_{t+1}, \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}, D_{t+1}) \right] \label{EQ:OptimalityCondition}\\ 0 =& -\der{F}{x^i_t}{} + \beta \vec a(\vec s_t,D_t) \cdot \nabla V^i_{t+1} \label{EQ:SimplifiedOptimalityCondition}\\ =& - f_{x_t} + \beta \vec a_t \cdot \nabla V^i_{t+1} \end{align} As there are $N$ constellations we get $N$ satellite stocks, $N-1$ decisions $x^{\sim i}$, and $1$ debris state for a total of $2N$ state variables\footnote{recall that $N$ is the number of constellations.}. Thus there are $2N$ envelope conditions to be found: \begin{align} % \nabla_{\vec s_t, \vec x^{\sim i}_t, D_t} V^i(\vec s_t, \vec x^{\sim i}_t, D_t) % =& \nabla_{\vec s_t, \vec x^{\sim i}_t, D_t} u^i(\vec s_t, D_t) \notag \\ % &+ \beta \left[ % \nabla_{\vec s_{t+1}, \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}, D_{t+1} } % V^i(\vec s_{t+1}, \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}, D_{t+1}) % \cdot % \nabla_{\vec s_t, \vec x^{\sim i}_t, D_t} % [ \vec s_{t+1}, \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}, D_{t+1} ] % \right] \label{EQ:EnvelopeConditions} % \\ \nabla_{\vec s_t, \vec x^{\sim i}_t, D_t} V^i(\vec s_t, \vec x^{\sim i}_t, D_t) = \nabla \vec V^i_t = \vec u^i + \beta B_t \cdot \nabla \vec V^i_{t+1} \label{EQ:SimplifiedEnvelopeConditions} \end{align} %When interpreting this, note that % $$ % \nabla \vec V^i_{t+1} = \nabla_{[\vec s_{t+1}~ \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}~ D_{t+1}] } % V^i(\vec s_{t+1}, \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}, D_{t+1}) % $$ % is a $2N \times 1$ vector of first derivatives but % $$ % A = \nabla_{\vec s_t, \vec x^{\sim i}_t, D_t} % [ \vec s_{t+1}~ \vec x^{\sim i}_{t+1}~ D_{t+1} ] % $$ % is a $2N \times 2N$ matrix of first derivatives. % By solving for $\vec V^i_{t+1}$ as a function of $\vec V^i_{t}$ we get the % intertemporal condition: % \begin{align} % \frac{1}{\beta} A^{-1} \left(\nabla \vec V^i_t - \vec u^i_t \right) % = \nabla \vec V^i_{t+1} % \end{align} % Thus one crucial condition for the existence of a solution is that $A^{-1}$ exists for % all values the laws of motion and choice functions can take. % \subsection{Existence} % I need to do some more diving into conditions for existence. % Of particular concern is that the way I have specified the debris may lead to % non-convergence. % To finish constructing the euler equation, we would use the intertemporal transition function \cref{EQ:SimplifiedEnvelopeConditions} and iterated versions of \cref{EQ:OptimalityCondition,EQ:SimplifiedOptimalityCondition} to construct the $2N+1$ euler equations.\footnote{Double check numbers} Note that for even a small number of agents -- e.g. 3 -- this iterated substitution becomes relatively complex, requiring caculating an iterated intertemporal tranisition function and laws of motion 6 times. To solve this symbolicly involves inverting a $6 \times 6$ matrix. As matrix inversion has approximately an $O(n^3)$ computational complexity, this becomes unsustainable very quickly. Section \cref{SEC:Computation} describes how to address this issue to generate these euler equations using features of modern programming languages and linear algebra libraries. \end{document}