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@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ ESA used the opportunity to highlight the difficulties arising from coordinating
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such coordination will become more difficult as the size and number of
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single purpose, single operator satellite fleets (satellite constellations) increase in low earth orbit\autocite{EsaBlog}.
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% Background on issues of congestion and pollution
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% Kessler Syndrome
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In spite of the fact that there is a lot of maneuvering room in outer space,
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@ -23,10 +24,10 @@ the probability of an unforeseen collision.
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The defining feature of pollution in orbit is that it self-propagates as debris collides with itself
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and orbiting satellites to generate more debris.
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This dynamic underlies a key concern, originally explored by Kessler and Cour-Palais \autocite{Kessler1978}
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that with sufficient mass in orbit (through satellite launches), the debris generating process
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could undergo a runaway effect rendering various orbital regions unusable.
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that with sufficient satellites in orbit, the debris generating process
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could undergo a runaway effect rendering some orbital regions unusable.
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This cascade of collisions is often known as Kessler syndrome and
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may take place over various timescales.
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may take place over various timescales, from weeks to decades.
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% ---------------
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%Discuss how various definitions of kessler syndrome
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@ -38,24 +39,25 @@ may take place over various timescales.
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%benefit of new launches negative before the physical kessler syndrome occurs.
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% ---------------
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Orbits may be divided into three primary groups,
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Low Earth Orbit (LEO),
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Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), and High Earth Orbit (HEO) where Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO)
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considered a particular classification of HEO.
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While the topic of LEO allocation has historically remained somewhat unexplored, the last 6 years has seen
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a variety of new empirical studies and theoretical models published.
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%Orbits may be divided into three primary groups,
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%Low Earth Orbit (LEO),
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%Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), and High Earth Orbit (HEO) where Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO)
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%is considered a particular subset of HEOs.
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%While the topic of LEO allocation has historically remained somewhat unexplored, the last 6 years has seen
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%a variety of new empirical studies and theoretical models published.
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% ---------------
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%Allocative efficiency
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Macauley provided the first evidence of sub-optimal behavior in orbit
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by estimating the welfare loss due to the current method of assigning GEO slots to operators\autocite{Macauley_1998}.
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The potential losses due to anti-competitive behavior were highlighted by Adilov et al ,
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The potential losses due to anti-competitive behavior were highlighted by Adilov et al,
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who have analyzed the opportunities for strategic
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``warehousing'' of non-functional satellites as a means of increasing competitive advantage by
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denying operating locations to competitors in GEO\autocite{Adilov2019}.
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The primary concern expressed in many of the published papers is whether or not orbits will be overused
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The primary concern expressed in many recently published papers is whether or not orbits will be overused
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due to their common-pool nature, and which policies may prevent kessler syndrome.
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On this topic, Adilov, Alexander, and Cunningham examine pollution
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using a two-period salop model, incorporating the effects of launch debris on
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@ -71,7 +73,7 @@ numerous operators in a free entry environment who
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can each launch a single, identical constellation\autocite{RaoRondina2020}.
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Rao, Burgess, and Kaffine use this model to estimate that achieving socially optimal
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behavior through orbital use fees could increase the value generated by the
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space industry by a factor of four\autocite{Rao2020}.
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space industry by a factor of four\autocite{Rao2020} in the long run.
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% ---------------
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@ -107,16 +109,26 @@ and the ways in which various policies encourage or discourage optimal decision
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% characterization of the general solutions to both the constellation operators' problems and
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% the fleet planner's problem,
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% and an analysis of survival rates within constellations and the entire fleet.
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%Contribution statement
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%Adds to raoRondina2020 and adilov2018 in extedning to more diverse situations.
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This work is mainly a theoretical expansion of two models:
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The heterogeneity that I permit is the distinguishing feature of the model and the major
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justification for this work, as orbits are used by many different types of operators.
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Specifically, I permit:
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\begin{itemize}
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\item Rao and Rondina's model \autocite{RaoRondina2020} dynamic model.
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\item Adilov et al's \autocite{Adilov2018} dynamic model.
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\item Heterogeneous agent types including commercial, scientific, and military.
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\item Asymetric constellations.
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\item Inter- and intra- constellation risk is not assumed to be equal.
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\end{itemize}
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In addition to the expansion, I contribute a general computational solver that allows
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us to examine complex scenarios similar to those encountered in actual policymaking.
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each of which are important qualities of the current orbital environment.
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None of these aspects are considered in the papers that I have reviewed so far.
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This work is mainly a theoretical expansion of two dynamic models by
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\cite{RaoRondina2020} as well as \cite{Adilov2018}
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%This model inherits the laws of motion for debris and constellation stocks from
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%the aformentioned models and follows the DSGE modelling approach chosen by Rao.
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In addition to the models' expansion, I contribute a general computational solver to analyse the
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complex situations that arise in practice.
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%Similarities
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% - Rao
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% - Law of debris:
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@ -132,18 +144,6 @@ us to examine complex scenarios similar to those encountered in actual policymak
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% - Allows for non-firm participants
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% - avoidance efficiencies
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This model inherits the laws of motion for debris and constellation stocks from
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\autocite{RaoRondina2020,Adilov2018} and follows the DSGE modelling approach chosen by Rao.
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It is distinguished from both of the aformentioned models
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by the way it allows for the following:
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\begin{itemize}
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\item Heterogeneous agent types including commercial, scientific, and military.
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\item Asymetric constellations.
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\item Inter- and intra- constellation risk is not assumed to be equal.
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\end{itemize}
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The heterogeneity that I permit is the distinguishing feature of the model and the major
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justification for this work, as orbits are used by many different types of operators.
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\end{document}
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