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Key Words: outer space, communications satellites, pricing natural resources

JEL Classification Nos.: H4, Q2},
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  publisher = {The Journal of Law and Economics},
}

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@TechReport{RaoRondina2020,
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  year        = {1978},
  number      = {A6},
  pages       = {2637-2646},
  volume      = {83},
  abstract    = {As the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This process parallels certain theories concerning the growth of the asteroid belt. The debris flux in such an earth-orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs. A mathematical model was used to predict the rate at which such a belt might form. Under certain conditions the belt could begin to form within this century and could be a significant problem during the next century. The possibility that numerous unobserved fragments already exist from spacecraft explosions would decrease this time interval. However, early implementation of specialized launch constraints and operational procedures could significantly delay the formation of the belt.},
  doi         = {10.1029/ja083ia06p02637},
  eprint      = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637},
  incitefulid = {126331087},
  magid       = {2098893304},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1029/ja083ia06p02637},
}

@Article{16916285,
  author      = {Akhil Rao and Matthew G. Burgess and Daniel T. Kaffine},
  journal     = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  title       = {Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry.},
  year        = {2020},
  issn        = {0027-8424},
  number      = {23},
  pages       = {12756--12762},
  volume      = {117},
  abstract    = {The commercial satellite industry is rapidly expanding. A side effect of this expansion is a growing buildup of space debris that imposes costly collision risk on satellite operators. Proposed solutions to this debris have been primarily technological, but the core of the problem is incentives{\textemdash}satellites are being launched without consideration of the collision risks they impose on other operators. We show that this incentive problem can be solved with an internationally harmonized {\textquotedblleft}orbital-use fee{\textquotedblright} (OUF){\textemdash}a tax on orbiting satellites. Using a coupled physical{\textendash}economic model, we project that an optimally designed OUF could more than quadruple the long-run value of the satellite industry by 2040.The space industry{\textquoteright}s rapid recent growth represents the latest tragedy of the commons. Satellites launched into orbit contribute to{\textemdash}and risk damage from{\textemdash}a growing buildup of space debris and other satellites. Collision risk from this orbital congestion is costly to satellite operators. Technological and managerial solutions{\textemdash}such as active debris removal or end-of-life satellite deorbit guidelines{\textemdash}are currently being explored by regulatory authorities. However, none of these approaches address the underlying incentive problem: satellite operators do not account for costs they impose on each other via collision risk. Here, we show that an internationally harmonized orbital-use fee can correct these incentives and substantially increase the value of the space industry. We construct and analyze a coupled physical{\textendash}economic model of commercial launches and debris accumulation in low-Earth orbit. Similar to carbon taxes, our model projects an optimal fee that rises at a rate of 14\% per year, equal to roughly $235,000 per satellite-year in 2040. The long-run value of the satellite industry would more than quadruple by 2040{\textemdash}increasing from around $600 billion under business as usual to around $3 trillion. In contrast, we project that purely technological solutions are unlikely to fully address the problem of orbital congestion. Indeed, we find debris removal sometimes worsens economic damages from congestion by increasing launch incentives. In other sectors, addressing the tragedy of the commons has often been a game of catch-up with substantial social costs. The infant space industry can avert these costs before they escalate.},
  doi         = {10.1073/pnas.1921260117},
  eprint      = {https://www.pnas.org/content/117/23/12756.full.pdf},
  incitefulid = {16916285},
  issue       = {23},
  magid       = {3028737585},
  publisher   = {National Academy of Sciences},
  url         = {http://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921260117},
}

@TechReport{reiland2020,
  author        = {Nathan Reiland and Aaron J. Rosengren and Renu Malhotra and Claudio Bombardelli},
  title         = {Assessing and Minimizing Collisions in Satellite Mega-Constellations},
  year          = {2020},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv},
  eprint        = {2002.00430},
  primaryclass  = {astro-ph.EP},
}

@Comment{jabref-meta: databaseType:bibtex;}
