# How I think orbit decisions are made.

There is a company (operator) with some $n\in N_0$ satellites in orbit.
They feel there would be benefit of adding another satellite.
They can estimate with relative accuracy the revenue improvements from adding and operating the satellite.
They have knowledge about the cost of operating the satellite.
They have a prior belief about the risks the satellite will face post launch.
This belief updates as situation changes.

The satellite can be in one of the following stages:
 - Development
 - Launch
 - Operation
 - Defunct
 - Destroyed
 - Deorbited

Satellite state also includes 
 - current velocity/trajectory (orbit)
 - current location
 - current consummables status (fuel, film, some forms of inertia)
 - current renewables status (battery, digitial storage space with up/download link)
 - current operational status

Sattelite control includes
 - consumable use
 - renewables use
 - renuwables renewal
and can influence
 - operational status (except current location)
 - stage

Risk takes the form of:
 - Development Risk (to slow of development, miss out on opportunities)
 - Launch Risk (doesn't deploy properly, fire end points to space)
 - Operational risk (lose control, move out of optimal path, interference by other satellites)
 - Latent existence risk (unknown space debris) (possibly ignorable?)
 - Observed existence risk (known space debris, other satellites)
 - Kessler risk (kessler syndrome)
 - Liability


The operator is then faced with the following decision during operation:
How do I maximize operational revenue while minimizing the avoidable and unavoidable risk, over time.
Also, how do I make an optimal stopping decision to choose when to deorbit?

Other interesting insights
The uninformed probability that you survive X time is exponential in debris, cet.paribus., but is not exponential conditional on increasing or decreasing satellite stock
     - gamma? where no launches get an exponential form, but increased/decreased launches gives a gamma?
The chance of transferring to a defunct state is not going to have the conditional indepencece behavior of exposure to debris.



Modeling ideas
Don't need to model orbit period by period. Usually movement etc takes place over multiple orbits.
Debris risk could probably be handled as density bands at various latitudes, and integrated across for a given time (related to how much time is spend in each band)
Other Satellite risk - Not sure how to model it.
Assume constelations attempt to place at a uniform density (this might not be true).
How I think orbit decisions are made.

There is a company (operator) with some $n\in N_0$ satellites in orbit.
They feel there would be benefit of adding another satellite.
They can estimate with relative accuracy the revenue improvements from adding and operating the satellite.
They have knowledge about the cost of operating the satellite.
They have a prior belief about the risks the satellite will face post launch.
This belief updates as situation changes.

The satellite can be in one of the following stages:
 - Development
 - Launch
 - Operation
 - Defunct
 - Destroyed
 - Deorbited

Satellite state also includes 
 - current velocity/trajectory (orbit)
 - current location
 - current consummables status (fuel, film, some forms of inertia)
 - current renewables status (battery, digitial storage space with up/download link)
 - current operational status

Sattelite control includes
 - consumable use
 - renewables use
 - renuwables renewal
and can influence
 - operational status (except current location)
 - stage

Risk takes the form of:
 - Development Risk (to slow of development, miss out on opportunities)
 - Launch Risk (doesn't deploy properly, fire end points to space)
 - Operational risk (lose control, move out of optimal path, interference by other satellites)
 - Latent existence risk (unknown space debris) (possibly ignorable?)
 - Observed existence risk (known space debris, other satellites)
 - Kessler risk (kessler syndrome)
 - Liability


The operator is then faced with the following decision during operation:
How do I maximize operational revenue while minimizing the avoidable and unavoidable risk, over time.
Also, how do I make an optimal stopping decision to choose when to deorbit?

Other interesting insights
The uninformed probability that you survive X time is exponential in debris, cet.paribus., but is not exponential conditional on increasing or decreasing satellite stock
     - gamma? where no launches get an exponential form, but increased/decreased launches gives a gamma?
The chance of transferring to a defunct state is not going to have the conditional indepencece behavior of exposure to debris.



Modeling ideas
Don't need to model orbit period by period. Usually movement etc takes place over multiple orbits.
Debris risk could probably be handled as density bands at various latitudes, and integrated across for a given time (related to how much time is spend in each band)
Other Satellite risk - Not sure how to model it.
Assume constelations attempt to place at a uniform density (this might not be true).
