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54 lines
2.2 KiB
TeX
54 lines
2.2 KiB
TeX
\documentclass[../Main.tex]{subfiles}
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\graphicspath{{\subfix{Assets/img/}}}
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\begin{document}
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% hook - what makes drugs expensive? Mention high failure rate
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% describe current research
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% - Examine mechanisms by which clinical trials fail.
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% - Mention data
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% - Results
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How to best address the high cost of pharmaceuticals is a crucial health
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and fiscal policy question that has been debated for
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decades.
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Due to the complicated legal and competitive landscape, unintended consequences
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are common
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\cite{van_der_gronde_addressing_2017}.
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One critical aspect to successfully introduce a novel pharmaceutical or even
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a generic compound is to establish that the drug as packaged and sold will
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have acceptable safety and efficacy profiles.
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This is done using clinical trials.
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To adequately guide public policy it is crucial that robust, causally-identified
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statistical models are available to describe the interaction between
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various players within the space.
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While it is known that pharmaceutical companies withdraw some drugs from
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their development pipeline due to commercialization concerns
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(
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\cite{khmelnitskaya_competition_2021}
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and
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\cite{van_der_gronde_addressing_2017}
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), there are likely unseen
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effects that might affect the overall drug pipleline.
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One of these is the concern that when there are already approved therapies on
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the market, patients might be loath to enroll in clinical trials,
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causing the trial to fail for reasons unrelated to the scientific or
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commercial viability of the therapy.
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This work endeavors to estimate the change in probability of successful completion
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of a clinical trial due to the existence of alternative drugs on the market.
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In particular, it seeks to establish whether such an impact is mediated
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by enrollment patterns or is caused more directly.
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The paper proceeds as follows: a brief literature review in \cref{SEC:LiteratureReview},
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a description of the caual model in \cref{SEC:CausalIdentification},
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followed by a description of the data (\cref{SEC:Data}) and the
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econometric model (\cref{SEC:EconometricModel}).
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Preliminary results are presented in \cref{SEC:Results} and a discussion
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of proposed improvements is included in \cref{SEC:Improvements}.
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\end{document}
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