@book{pearl_causality_2000, location = {Cambridge, U.K. ; New York}, title = {Causality: models, reasoning, and inference}, isbn = {978-0-521-89560-6 978-0-521-77362-1}, shorttitle = {Causality}, pagetotal = {384}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, author = {Pearl, Judea}, date = {2000}, langid = {english}, keywords = {Causation, Probabilities}, file = {Pearl - 2000 - Causality models, reasoning, and inference.pdf:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/8GZJS832/Pearl - 2000 - Causality models, reasoning, and inference.pdf:application/pdf}, } @thesis{khmelnitskaya_competition_2021, title = {Competition and Attrition in Drug Development}, abstract = {With fewer than 10\% of new drugs reaching the market, the drug development process is notorious for its high attrition rate. However, we rarely observe the reason for a drug’s discontinuation. It is known that pharmaceutical firms withdraw drugs after clinical failures, such as when trial results do not demonstrate adequate safety or efficacy according to {FDA} standards. At the same time, surveys suggest that firms also withdraw drugs for strategic reasons, such as when competition makes it unprofitable to continue development. Disentangling these two sources of attrition is necessary in order to predict the effects a government policy would have on the number of drugs that reach consumers. In this paper, I propose an empirical framework to separately identify the two components of attrition for each disease. To this end, I build a continuous-time dynamic model of the drug development process. In the model, firms take competitors’ R\&D choices into account when they make exit decisions at different stages of the innovation process. To estimate the model, I use rich data on the development histories of experimental drugs, clinical trial outcomes, and disease-specific epidemiological characteristics. I find that, on average, strategic terminations account for 8.4\% of all attrition, and as much as 35\% for some diseases. Using these estimates in counterfactual simulations, I show that without strategic withdrawals, the rate at which new drugs reach consumers would be on average 23\% higher. Large subsidies for clinical trials help realize some of that gain, with better results found for diseases that have a higher share of strategic attrition. However, the overall effect of subsidies on the rate of new drug launches is small. Alternatively, the same effect can be achieved through any minor regulatory adjustment that marginally helps lower the probability of late-stage clinical failures.}, pagetotal = {55}, institution = {University of Virginia}, type = {phdthesis}, author = {Khmelnitskaya, Ekaterina}, urldate = {2023-04-10}, date = {2021-05}, langid = {english}, file = {1_Khmelnitskaya_Ekaterina_2021_PHD.pdf:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/CSRFCIDB/1_Khmelnitskaya_Ekaterina_2021_PHD.pdf:application/pdf;Khmelnitskaya - Competition and Attrition in Drug Development.pdf:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/QBXQ4ZLR/Khmelnitskaya - Competition and Attrition in Drug Development.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{ursu_drugcentral_2017, title = {{DrugCentral}: online drug compendium}, volume = {45}, issn = {0305-1048, 1362-4962}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/nar/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/nar/gkw993}, doi = {10.1093/nar/gkw993}, shorttitle = {{DrugCentral}}, pages = {D932--D939}, issue = {D1}, journaltitle = {Nucleic Acids Research}, shortjournal = {Nucleic Acids Res}, author = {Ursu, Oleg and Holmes, Jayme and Knockel, Jeffrey and Bologa, Cristian G. and Yang, Jeremy J. and Mathias, Stephen L. and Nelson, Stuart J. and Oprea, Tudor I.}, urldate = {2023-04-10}, date = {2017-01-04}, langid = {english}, file = {Full Text:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/7W6THRK6/Ursu et al. - 2017 - DrugCentral online drug compendium.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{van_der_gronde_addressing_2017, title = {Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine: A systematic review of drug life cycles, therapeutic drug markets and regulatory frameworks}, volume = {12}, issn = {1932-6203}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5559086/}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0182613}, shorttitle = {Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine}, abstract = {Context Recent public outcry has highlighted the rising cost of prescription drugs worldwide, which in several disease areas outpaces other health care expenditures and results in a suboptimal global availability of essential medicines. Method A systematic review of Pubmed, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Guardian was performed to identify articles related to the pricing of medicines. Findings Changes in drug life cycles have dramatically affected patent medicine markets, which have long been considered a self-evident and self-sustainable source of income for highly profitable drug companies. Market failure in combination with high merger and acquisition activity in the sector have allowed price increases for even off-patent drugs. With market interventions and the introduction of {QALY} measures in health care, governments have tried to influence drug prices, but often encounter unintended consequences. Patent reform legislation, reference pricing, outcome-based pricing and incentivizing physicians and pharmacists to prescribe low-cost drugs are among the most promising short-term policy options. Due to the lack of systematic research on the effectiveness of policy measures, an increasing number of ad hoc decisions have been made with counterproductive effects on the availability of essential drugs. Future challenges demand new policies, for which recommendations are offered. Conclusion A fertile ground for high-priced drugs has been created by changes in drug life-cycle dynamics, the unintended effects of patent legislation, government policy measures and orphan drug programs. There is an urgent need for regulatory reform to curtail prices and safeguard equitable access to innovative medicines.}, pages = {e0182613}, number = {8}, journaltitle = {{PLoS} {ONE}}, shortjournal = {{PLoS} One}, author = {van der Gronde, Toon and Uyl-de Groot, Carin A. and Pieters, Toine}, urldate = {2023-03-11}, date = {2017-08-16}, pmid = {28813502}, pmcid = {PMC5559086}, file = {PubMed Central Full Text PDF:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/7Y8KZSMU/van der Gronde et al. - 2017 - Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescripti.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{hwang_failure_2016, title = {Failure of Investigational Drugs in Late-Stage Clinical Development and Publication of Trial Results}, volume = {176}, issn = {2168-6106}, url = {http://archinte.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?doi=10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.6008}, doi = {10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.6008}, abstract = {{OBJECTIVE} To assess factors associated with regulatory approval or reasons for failure of investigational therapeutics in phase 3 or pivotal trials and rates of publication of trial results. {DESIGN}, {SETTING}, {AND} {PARTICIPANTS} Using public sources and commercial databases, we identified investigational therapeutics that entered pivotal trials between 1998 and 2008, with follow-up through 2015. Agents were classified by therapeutic area, orphan designation status, fast track designation, novelty of biological pathway, company size, and as a pharmacologic or biologic product. {MAIN} {OUTCOMES} {AND} {MEASURES} For each product, we identified reasons for failure (efficacy, safety, commercial) and assessed the rates of publication of trial results. We used multivariable logistic regression models to evaluate factors associated with regulatory approval. {RESULTS} Among 640 novel therapeutics, 344 (54\%) failed in clinical development, 230 (36\%) were approved by the {US} Food and Drug Administration ({FDA}), and 66 (10\%) were approved in other countries but not by the {FDA}. Most products failed due to inadequate efficacy (n = 195; 57\%), while 59 (17\%) failed because of safety concerns and 74 (22\%) failed due to commercial reasons. The pivotal trial results were published in peer-reviewed journals for 138 of the 344 (40\%) failed agents. Of 74 trials for agents that failed for commercial reasons, only 6 (8.1\%) were published. In analyses adjusted for therapeutic area, agent type, firm size, orphan designation, fast-track status, trial year, and novelty of biological pathway, orphan-designated drugs were significantly more likely than nonorphan drugs to be approved (46\% vs 34\%; adjusted odds ratio [{aOR}], 2.3; 95\% {CI}, 1.4-3.7). Cancer drugs (27\% vs 39\%; {aOR}, 0.5; 95\% {CI}, 0.3-0.9) and agents sponsored by small and medium-size companies (28\% vs 42\%; {aOR}, 0.4; 95\% {CI}, 0.3-0.7) were significantly less likely to be approved. {CONCLUSIONS} {AND} {RELEVANCE} Roughly half of investigational drugs entering late-stage clinical development fail during or after pivotal clinical trials, primarily because of concerns about safety, efficacy, or both. Results for the majority of studies of investigational drugs that fail are not published in peer-reviewed journals.}, pages = {1826}, number = {12}, journaltitle = {{JAMA} Internal Medicine}, shortjournal = {{JAMA} Intern Med}, author = {Hwang, Thomas J. and Carpenter, Daniel and Lauffenburger, Julie C. and Wang, Bo and Franklin, Jessica M. and Kesselheim, Aaron S.}, urldate = {2023-01-31}, date = {2016-12-01}, langid = {english}, file = {Hwang et al. - 2016 - Failure of Investigational Drugs in Late-Stage Cli.pdf:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/JJC96CPC/Hwang et al. - 2016 - Failure of Investigational Drugs in Late-Stage Cli.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{abrantes-metz_pharmaceutical_2004, title = {Pharmaceutical Development Phases: A Duration Analysis}, issn = {1556-5068}, url = {http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=607941}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.607941}, shorttitle = {Pharmaceutical Development Phases}, journaltitle = {{SSRN} Electronic Journal}, shortjournal = {{SSRN} Journal}, author = {Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. and Adams, Christopher and Metz, Albert D.}, urldate = {2023-01-31}, date = {2004}, langid = {english}, file = {Abrantes-Metz et al. - 2004 - Pharmaceutical Development Phases A Duration Anal.pdf:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/LANZBC53/Abrantes-Metz et al. - 2004 - Pharmaceutical Development Phases A Duration Anal.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{acemoglu_market_2004, title = {{MARKET} {SIZE} {IN} {INNOVATION}: {THEORY} {AND} {EVIDENCE} {FROM} {THE} {PHARMACEUTICAL} {INDUSTRY}}, journaltitle = {{QUARTERLY} {JOURNAL} {OF} {ECONOMICS}}, author = {Acemoglu, Daron and Linn, Joshua}, date = {2004-08}, langid = {english}, file = {Acemoglu and Linn - MARKET SIZE IN INNOVATION THEORY AND EVIDENCE FRO.pdf:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/HYTY3E36/Acemoglu and Linn - MARKET SIZE IN INNOVATION THEORY AND EVIDENCE FRO.pdf:application/pdf}, } @online{noauthor_fdaaa_nodate, title = {{FDAAA} 801 and the Final Rule - {ClinicalTrials}.gov}, url = {https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/manage-recs/fdaaa}, urldate = {2023-04-08}, langid = {english}, file = {Snapshot:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/V9YVGVK2/fdaaa.html:text/html}, } @online{noauthor_frequently_nodate, title = {Frequently Asked Questions - {ClinicalTrials}.gov}, url = {https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/manage-recs/faq#board}, urldate = {2023-04-08}, langid = {english}, file = {Snapshot:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/GNBZDX5B/faq.html:text/html}, } @online{noauthor_rxnorm_nodate, title = {{RxNorm}}, rights = {Public Domain}, url = {https://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/umls/rxnorm/index.html}, type = {Product, Program, and Project Descriptions}, urldate = {2023-04-08}, note = {Publisher: U.S. National Library of Medicine}, file = {Snapshot:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/UPPXYYW6/index.html:text/html}, } @online{noauthor_rxnorm_nodate-1, title = {{RxNorm} Overview}, rights = {Public Domain}, url = {https://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/umls/rxnorm/overview.html}, type = {Product, Program, and Project Descriptions}, urldate = {2023-04-08}, note = {Publisher: U.S. National Library of Medicine}, file = {Snapshot:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/XI269ZNM/overview.html:text/html}, } @online{noauthor_medical_nodate, title = {Medical Subject Headings - Home Page}, rights = {Public Domain}, url = {https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/meshhome.html}, type = {Product, Program, and Project Descriptions}, urldate = {2023-04-09}, note = {Publisher: U.S. National Library of Medicine}, file = {Snapshot:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/RTW5EPBG/meshhome.html:text/html}, } @online{noauthor_international_nodate, title = {International Classification of Diseases ({ICD})}, url = {https://www.who.int/standards/classifications/classification-of-diseases}, abstract = {International Classification of Diseases ({ICD}) Revision}, urldate = {2023-04-09}, langid = {english}, file = {Snapshot:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/4Y3F35AR/classification-of-diseases.html:text/html}, } @online{noauthor_2023_nodate, title = {2023 {ICD}-10-{CM} {\textbar} {CMS}}, url = {https://www.cms.gov/medicare/icd-10/2023-icd-10-cm}, urldate = {2023-04-09}, } @online{noauthor_2023_nodate-1, title = {2023 {ICD}-10-{PCS} {\textbar} {CMS}}, url = {https://www.cms.gov/medicare/icd-10/2023-icd-10-pcs}, urldate = {2023-04-09}, file = {2023 ICD-10-PCS | CMS:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/4NLQJQT6/2023-icd-10-pcs.html:text/html}, } @online{noauthor_2019_nodate, title = {2019 {ICD}-10-{CM} {\textbar} {CMS}}, url = {https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Coding/ICD10/2019-ICD-10-CM}, urldate = {2023-04-09}, file = {2019 ICD-10-CM | CMS:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/S5ISTWEL/2019-ICD-10-CM.html:text/html}, } @online{commissioner_understanding_2019, title = {Understanding Unapproved Use of Approved Drugs "Off Label"}, url = {https://www.fda.gov/patients/learn-about-expanded-access-and-other-treatment-options/understanding-unapproved-use-approved-drugs-label}, abstract = {Understanding Unapproved Use of Approved Drugs "Off Label"}, titleaddon = {{FDA}}, author = {Commissioner, Office of the}, urldate = {2023-04-10}, date = {2019-04-18}, langid = {english}, note = {Publisher: {FDA}}, file = {Snapshot:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/VAKSGTAP/understanding-unapproved-use-approved-drugs-label.html:text/html}, } @misc{noauthor_indexing_nodate, title = {Indexing Spl Fact Sheet}, file = {Indexing-SPL-Fact-Sheet.pdf:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/KAHW2ABD/Indexing-SPL-Fact-Sheet.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{vos_global_2020, title = {Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019}, volume = {396}, issn = {0140-6736, 1474-547X}, url = {https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30925-9/fulltext}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30925-9}, shorttitle = {Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019}, pages = {1204--1222}, number = {10258}, journaltitle = {The Lancet}, shortjournal = {The Lancet}, author = {Vos, Theo and Lim, Stephen S. and Abbafati, Cristiana and Abbas, Kaja M. and Abbasi, Mohammad and Abbasifard, Mitra and Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen and Abbastabar, Hedayat and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abdelalim, Ahmed and Abdollahi, Mohammad and Abdollahpour, Ibrahim and Abolhassani, Hassan and Aboyans, Victor and Abrams, Elissa M. and Abreu, Lucas Guimarães and Abrigo, Michael R. M. and Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal and Abushouk, Abdelrahman I. and Acebedo, Alyssa and Ackerman, Ilana N. and Adabi, Maryam and Adamu, Abdu A. and Adebayo, Oladimeji M. and Adekanmbi, Victor and Adelson, Jaimie D. and Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. and Adham, Davoud and Afshari, Mahdi and Afshin, Ashkan and Agardh, Emilie E. and Agarwal, Gina and Agesa, Kareha M. and Aghaali, Mohammad and Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem and Agrawal, Anurag and Ahmad, Tauseef and Ahmadi, Alireza and Ahmadi, Mehdi and Ahmadieh, Hamid and Ahmadpour, Ehsan and Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie and Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola and Akinyemiju, Tomi and Akombi, Blessing and Al-Aly, Ziyad and Alam, Khurshid and Alam, Noore and Alam, Samiah and Alam, Tahiya and Alanzi, Turki M. and Albertson, Samuel B. and Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth and Alema, Niguse Meles and Ali, Muhammad and Ali, Saqib and Alicandro, Gianfranco and Alijanzadeh, Mehran and Alinia, Cyrus and Alipour, Vahid and Aljunid, Syed Mohamed and Alla, François and Allebeck, Peter and Almasi-Hashiani, Amir and Alonso, Jordi and Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. and Altirkawi, Khalid A. and Alvis-Guzman, Nelson and Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. and Amini, Saeed and Amini-Rarani, Mostafa and Aminorroaya, Arya and Amiri, Fatemeh and Amit, Arianna Maever L. and Amugsi, Dickson A. and Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera and Anderlini, Deanna and Andrei, Catalina Liliana and Andrei, Tudorel and Anjomshoa, Mina and Ansari, Fereshteh and Ansari, Iman and Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. and Antony, Catherine M. and Antriyandarti, Ernoiz and Anvari, Davood and Anwer, Razique and Arabloo, Jalal and Arab-Zozani, Morteza and Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. and Ariani, Filippo and Ärnlöv, Johan and Aryal, Krishna K. and Arzani, Afsaneh and Asadi-Aliabadi, Mehran and Asadi-Pooya, Ali A. and Asghari, Babak and Ashbaugh, Charlie and Atnafu, Desta Debalkie and Atre, Sachin R. and Ausloos, Floriane and Ausloos, Marcel and Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala and Ayano, Getinet and Ayanore, Martin Amogre and Aynalem, Yared Asmare and Azari, Samad and Azarian, Ghasem and Azene, Zelalem Nigussie and Babaee, Ebrahim and Badawi, Alaa and Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba and Bakhshaei, Mohammad Hossein and Bakhtiari, Ahad and Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar and Balalla, Shivanthi and Balassyano, Shelly and Banach, Maciej and Banik, Palash Chandra and Bannick, Marlena S. and Bante, Agegnehu Bante and Baraki, Adhanom Gebreegziabher and Barboza, Miguel A. and Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn and Barthelemy, Celine M. and Barua, Lingkan and Barzegar, Akbar and Basu, Sanjay and Baune, Bernhard T. and Bayati, Mohsen and Bazmandegan, Gholamreza and Bedi, Neeraj and Beghi, Ettore and Béjot, Yannick and Bello, Aminu K. and Bender, Rose G. and Bennett, Derrick A. and Bennitt, Fiona B. and Bensenor, Isabela M. and Benziger, Catherine P. and Berhe, Kidanemaryam and Bernabe, Eduardo and Bertolacci, Gregory J. and Bhageerathy, Reshmi and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhandari, Dinesh and Bhardwaj, Pankaj and Bhattacharyya, Krittika and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. and Bibi, Sadia and Biehl, Molly H. and Bikbov, Boris and Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin and Biondi, Antonio and Birihane, Binyam Minuye and Bisanzio, Donal and Bisignano, Catherine and Biswas, Raaj Kishore and Bohlouli, Somayeh and Bohluli, Mehdi and Bolla, Srinivasa Rao Rao and Boloor, Archith and Boon-Dooley, Alexandra S. and Borges, Guilherme and Borzì, Antonio Maria and Bourne, Rupert and Brady, Oliver J. and Brauer, Michael and Brayne, Carol and Breitborde, Nicholas J. K. and Brenner, Hermann and Briant, Paul Svitil and Briggs, Andrew M. and Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich and Britton, Gabrielle B. and Bryazka, Dana and Buchbinder, Rachelle and Bumgarner, Blair R. and Busse, Reinhard and Butt, Zahid A. and Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos and Cámera, Luis {LA} Alberto and Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. and Car, Josip and Cárdenas, Rosario and Carreras, Giulia and Carrero, Juan J. and Carvalho, Felix and Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio and Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. and Castelpietra, Giulio and Castle, Chris D. and Castro, Franz and Catalá-López, Ferrán and Causey, Kate and Cederroth, Christopher R. and Cercy, Kelly M. and Cerin, Ester and Chandan, Joht Singh and Chang, Alex R. and Charlson, Fiona J. and Chattu, Vijay Kumar and Chaturvedi, Sarika and Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel and Chin, Ken Lee and Cho, Daniel Youngwhan and Christensen, Hanne and Chu, Dinh-Toi and Chung, Michael T. and Cicuttini, Flavia M. and Ciobanu, Liliana G. and Cirillo, Massimo and Collins, Emma L. and Compton, Kelly and Conti, Sara and Cortesi, Paolo Angelo and Costa, Vera Marisa and Cousin, Ewerton and Cowden, Richard G. and Cowie, Benjamin C. and Cromwell, Elizabeth A. and Cross, Di H. and Crowe, Christopher Stephen and Cruz, Jessica A. and Cunningham, Matthew and Dahlawi, Saad M. A. and Damiani, Giovanni and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Darwesh, Aso Mohammad and Daryani, Ahmad and Das, Jai K. and Gupta, Rajat Das and Neves, José das and Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto and Davletov, Kairat and Leo, Diego De and Dean, Frances E. and {DeCleene}, Nicole K. and Deen, Amanda and Degenhardt, Louisa and Dellavalle, Robert Paul and Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen and Demsie, Desalegn Getnet and Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar and Dereje, Nebiyu Dereje and Dervenis, Nikolaos and Desai, Rupak and Desalew, Assefa and Dessie, Getenet Ayalew and Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda and Dhungana, Govinda Prasad and Dianatinasab, Mostafa and Diaz, Daniel and Forooshani, Zahra Sadat Dibaji and Dingels, Zachary V. and Dirac, M. Ashworth and Djalalinia, Shirin and Do, Hoa Thi and Dokova, Klara and Dorostkar, Fariba and Doshi, Chirag P. and Doshmangir, Leila and Douiri, Abdel and Doxey, Matthew C. and Driscoll, Tim Robert and Dunachie, Susanna J. and Duncan, Bruce B. and Duraes, Andre Rodrigues and Eagan, Arielle Wilder and Kalan, Mohammad Ebrahimi and Edvardsson, David and Ehrlich, Joshua R. and Nahas, Nevine El and Sayed, Iman El and Tantawi, Maha El and Elbarazi, Iffat and Elgendy, Islam Y. and Elhabashy, Hala Rashad and El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I. and Elyazar, Iqbal {RF} and Emamian, Mohammad Hassan and Emmons-Bell, Sophia and Erskine, Holly E. and Eshrati, Babak and Eskandarieh, Sharareh and Esmaeilnejad, Saman and Esmaeilzadeh, Firooz and Esteghamati, Alireza and Estep, Kara and Etemadi, Arash and Etisso, Atkilt Esaiyas and Farahmand, Mohammad and Faraj, Anwar and Fareed, Mohammad and Faridnia, Roghiyeh and Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá and Farioli, Andrea and Faro, Andre and Faruque, Mithila and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fattahi, Nazir and Fazlzadeh, Mehdi and Feigin, Valery L. and Feldman, Rachel and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fernandes, Eduarda and Ferrari, Alize J. and Ferreira, Manuela L. and Filip, Irina and Fischer, Florian and Fisher, James L. and Fitzgerald, Ryan and Flohr, Carsten and Flor, Luisa Sorio and Foigt, Nataliya A. and Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin and Force, Lisa M. and Fornari, Carla and Foroutan, Masoud and Fox, Jack T. and Freitas, Marisa and Fu, Weijia and Fukumoto, Takeshi and Furtado, João M. and Gad, Mohamed M. and Gakidou, Emmanuela and Galles, Natalie C. and Gallus, Silvano and Gamkrelidze, Amiran and Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. and Gardner, William M. and Geberemariyam, Biniyam Sahiledengle and Gebrehiwot, Abiyu Mekonnen and Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork and Gebreslassie, Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Ayalew and Hayoon, Anna Gershberg and Gething, Peter W. and Ghadimi, Maryam and Ghadiri, Keyghobad and Ghafourifard, Mansour and Ghajar, Alireza and Ghamari, Farhad and Ghashghaee, Ahmad and Ghiasvand, Hesam and Ghith, Nermin and Gholamian, Asadollah and Gilani, Syed Amir and Gill, Paramjit Singh and Gitimoghaddam, Mojgan and Giussani, Giorgia and Goli, Srinivas and Gomez, Ricardo Santiago and Gopalani, Sameer Vali and Gorini, Giuseppe and Gorman, Taren M. and Gottlich, Harrison Chase and Goudarzi, Houman and Goulart, Alessandra C. and Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia and Grada, Ayman and Grivna, Michal and Grosso, Giuseppe and Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena and Guimarães, Rafael Alves and Guled, Rashid Abdi and Guo, Gaorui and Guo, Yuming and Gupta, Rajeev and Haagsma, Juanita A. and Haddock, Beatrix and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hafiz, Abdul and Hagins, Hailey and Haile, Lydia M. and Hall, Brian J. and Halvaei, Iman and Hamadeh, Randah R. and Abdullah, Kanaan Hamagharib and Hamilton, Erin B. and Han, Chieh and Han, Hannah and Hankey, Graeme J. and Haro, Josep Maria and Harvey, James D. and Hasaballah, Ahmed I. and Hasanzadeh, Amir and Hashemian, Maryam and Hassanipour, Soheil and Hassankhani, Hadi and Havmoeller, Rasmus J. and Hay, Roderick J. and Hay, Simon I. and Hayat, Khezar and Heidari, Behnam and Heidari, Golnaz and Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza and Hendrie, Delia and Henrikson, Hannah J. and Henry, Nathaniel J. and Herteliu, Claudiu and Heydarpour, Fatemeh and Hird, Thomas R. and Hoek, Hans W. and Hole, Michael K. and Holla, Ramesh and Hoogar, Praveen and Hosgood, H. Dean and Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi and Hostiuc, Mihaela and Hostiuc, Sorin and Househ, Mowafa and Hoy, Damian G. and Hsairi, Mohamed and Hsieh, Vivian Chia-rong and Hu, Guoqing and Huda, Tanvir M. and Hugo, Fernando N. and Huynh, Chantal K. and Hwang, Bing-Fang and Iannucci, Vincent C. and Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel and Ikuta, Kevin S. and Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen and Ilic, Irena M. and Ilic, Milena D. and Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja and Ippolito, Helen and Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi and Islam, M. Mofizul and Islam, {MdMohaimenul} and Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful and Islami, Farhad and Iso, Hiroyasu and Ivers, Rebecca Q. and Iwu, Chidozie C. 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Anil and Kumar, Manasi and Kumar, Pushpendra and Kumar, Vivek and Kumaresh, Girikumar and Kurmi, Om P. and Kusuma, Dian and Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe and Vecchia, Carlo La and Lacey, Ben and Lal, Dharmesh Kumar and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lam, Jennifer O. and Lami, Faris Hasan and Landires, Iván and Lang, Justin J. and Lansingh, Van Charles and Larson, Samantha Leigh and Larsson, Anders O. and Lasrado, Savita and Lassi, Zohra S. and Lau, Kathryn Mei-Ming and Lavados, Pablo M. and Lazarus, Jeffrey V. and Ledesma, Jorge R. and Lee, Paul H. and Lee, Shaun Wen Huey and {LeGrand}, Kate E. and Leigh, James and Leonardi, Matilde and Lescinsky, Haley and Leung, Janni and Levi, Miriam and Lewington, Sarah and Li, Shanshan and Lim, Lee-Ling and Lin, Christine and Lin, Ro-Ting and Linehan, Christine and Linn, Shai and Liu, Hung-Chun and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Zichen and Looker, Katharine J. and Lopez, Alan D. and Lopukhov, Platon D. and Lorkowski, Stefan and Lotufo, Paulo A. and Lucas, Tim C. D. and Lugo, Alessandra and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Lyons, Ronan A. and Ma, Jianing and {MacLachlan}, Jennifer H. and Maddison, Emilie R. and Maddison, Ralph and Madotto, Fabiana and Mahasha, Phetole Walter and Mai, Hue Thi and Majeed, Azeem and Maled, Venkatesh and Maleki, Shokofeh and Malekzadeh, Reza and Malta, Deborah Carvalho and Mamun, Abdullah A. and Manafi, Amir and Manafi, Navid and Manguerra, Helena and Mansouri, Borhan and Mansournia, Mohammad Ali and Herrera, Ana M. Mantilla and Maravilla, Joemer C. and Marks, Ashley and Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio and Martopullo, Ira and Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra and Massano, João and Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard and Mathur, Manu Raj and Maulik, Pallab K. and {McAlinden}, Colm and {McGrath}, John J. and {McKee}, Martin and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mehri, Fereshteh and Mehta, Kala M. and Meitei, Wahengbam Bigyananda and Memiah, Peter T. N. and Mendoza, Walter and Menezes, Ritesh G. and Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku and Mengesha, Meresa Berwo and Mereke, Alibek and Meretoja, Atte and Meretoja, Tuomo J. and Mestrovic, Tomislav and Miazgowski, Bartosz and Miazgowski, Tomasz and Michalek, Irmina Maria and Mihretie, Kebadnew Mulatu and Miller, Ted R. and Mills, Edward J. and Mirica, Andreea and Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. and Mirzaei, Hamed and Mirzaei, Maryam and Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Mehdi and Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen and Mithra, Prasanna and Moazen, Babak and Moghadaszadeh, Masoud and Mohamadi, Efat and Mohammad, Dara K. and Mohammad, Yousef and Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi and Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah and Mohammadifard, Noushin and Mohammadpourhodki, Reza and Mohammed, Shafiu and Mokdad, Ali H. and Molokhia, Mariam and Momen, Natalie C. and Monasta, Lorenzo and Mondello, Stefania and Mooney, Meghan D. and Moosazadeh, Mahmood and Moradi, Ghobad and Moradi, Masoud and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah and Moraga, Paula and Morales, Linda and Morawska, Lidia and Velásquez, Ilais Moreno and Morgado-da-Costa, Joana and Morrison, Shane Douglas and Mosser, Jonathan F. and Mouodi, Simin and Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam and Khaneghah, Amin Mousavi and Mueller, Ulrich Otto and Munro, Sandra B. and Muriithi, Moses K. and Musa, Kamarul Imran and Muthupandian, Saravanan and Naderi, Mehdi and Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman and Nagel, Gabriele and Naghshtabrizi, Behshad and Nair, Sanjeev and Nandi, Anita K. and Nangia, Vinay and Nansseu, Jobert Richie and Nayak, Vinod C. and Nazari, Javad and Negoi, Ionut and Negoi, Ruxandra Irina and Netsere, Henok Biresaw Netsere and Ngunjiri, Josephine W. and Nguyen, Cuong Tat and Nguyen, Jason and Nguyen, Michele and Nguyen, Minh and Nichols, Emma and Nigatu, Dabere and Nigatu, Yeshambel T. and Nikbakhsh, Rajan and Nixon, Molly R. and Nnaji, Chukwudi A. and Nomura, Shuhei and Norrving, Bo and Noubiap, Jean Jacques and Nowak, Christoph and Nunez-Samudio, Virginia and Oţoiu, Adrian and Oancea, Bogdan and Odell, Christopher M. and Ogbo, Felix Akpojene and Oh, In-Hwan and Okunga, Emmanuel Wandera and Oladnabi, Morteza and Olagunju, Andrew T. and Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola and Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun and Oluwasanu, Mojisola Morenike and Bali, Ahmed Omar and Omer, Muktar Omer and Ong, Kanyin L. and Onwujekwe, Obinna E. and Orji, Aislyn U. and Orpana, Heather M. and Ortiz, Alberto and Ostroff, Samuel M. and Otstavnov, Nikita and Otstavnov, Stanislav S. and Øverland, Simon and Owolabi, Mayowa O. and A, Mahesh P. and Padubidri, Jagadish Rao and Pakhare, Abhijit P. and Palladino, Raffaele and Pana, Adrian and Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra and Pandey, Anamika and Park, Eun-Kee and Parmar, Priya G. Kumari and Pasupula, Deepak Kumar and Patel, Sangram Kishor and Paternina-Caicedo, Angel J. and Pathak, Ashish and Pathak, Mona and Patten, Scott B. and Patton, George C. and Paudel, Deepak and Toroudi, Hamidreza Pazoki and Peden, Amy E. and Pennini, Alyssa and Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino and Peprah, Emmanuel K. and Pereira, Alexandre and Pereira, David M. and Perico, Norberto and Pham, Hai Quang and Phillips, Michael R. and Pigott, David M. and Pilgrim, Thomas and Pilz, Tessa M. and Pirsaheb, Meghdad and Plana-Ripoll, Oleguer and Plass, Dietrich and Pokhrel, Khem Narayan and Polibin, Roman V. and Polinder, Suzanne and Polkinghorne, Kevan R. and Postma, Maarten J. and Pourjafar, Hadi and Pourmalek, Farshad and Kalhori, Reza Pourmirza and Pourshams, Akram and Poznańska, Anna and Prada, Sergio I. and Prakash, V. and Pribadi, Dimas Ria Angga and Pupillo, Elisabetta and Syed, Zahiruddin Quazi and Rabiee, Mohammad and Rabiee, Navid and Radfar, Amir and Rafiee, Ata and Rafiei, Alireza and Raggi, Alberto and Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin and Rahman, Muhammad Aziz and Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali and Rajati, Fatemeh and Ramezanzadeh, Kiana and Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal and Rao, Puja C. and Rao, Sowmya J. and Rasella, Davide and Rastogi, Prateek and Rathi, Priya and Rawaf, David Laith and Rawaf, Salman and Rawal, Lal and Razo, Christian and Redford, Sofia Boston and Reiner, Robert C. and Reinig, Nickolas and Reitsma, Marissa Bettay and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Renjith, Vishnu and Renzaho, Andre M. 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Rashad and Salimzadeh, Hamideh and Salomon, Joshua A. and Salz, Inbal and Samad, Zainab and Samy, Abdallah M. and Sanabria, Juan and Santomauro, Damian Francesco and Santos, Itamar S. and Santos, João Vasco and Santric-Milicevic, Milena M. and Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer and Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo and Sarrafzadegan, Nizal and Sartorius, Benn and Sarveazad, Arash and Sathian, Brijesh and Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu and Sattin, Davide and Sbarra, Alyssa N. and Schaeffer, Lauren E. and Schiavolin, Silvia and Schmidt, Maria Inês and Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth and Schwebel, David C. and Schwendicke, Falk and Senbeta, Anbissa Muleta and Senthilkumaran, Subramanian and Sepanlou, Sadaf G. and Shackelford, Katya Anne and Shadid, Jamileh and Shahabi, Saeed and Shaheen, Amira A. and Shaikh, Masood Ali and Shalash, Ali S. and Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran and Shamsizadeh, Morteza and Shannawaz, Mohammed and Sharafi, Kiomars and Sharara, Fablina and Sheena, Brittney S. and Sheikhtaheri, Abbas and Shetty, Ranjitha S. and Shibuya, Kenji and Shiferaw, Wondimeneh Shibabaw and Shigematsu, Mika and Shin, Jae Il and Shiri, Rahman and Shirkoohi, Reza and Shrime, Mark G. and Shuval, Kerem and Siabani, Soraya and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig and Silva, João Pedro and Simpson, Kyle E. and Singh, Ambrish and Singh, Jasvinder A. and Skiadaresi, Eirini and Skou, Søren T. and Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich and Sobngwi, Eugene and Sokhan, Anton and Soltani, Shahin and Sorensen, Reed J. D. and Soriano, Joan B. and Sorrie, Muluken Bekele and Soyiri, Ireneous N. and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. and Stanaway, Jeffrey D. and Stark, Benjamin A. and Ştefan, Simona Cătălina and Stein, Caroline and Steiner, Caitlyn and Steiner, Timothy J. and Stokes, Mark A. and Stovner, Lars Jacob and Stubbs, Jacob L. and Sudaryanto, Agus and Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale and Sulo, Gerhard and Sultan, Iyad and Sykes, Bryan L. and Sylte, Dillon O. and Szócska, Miklós and Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael and Tabb, Karen M. and Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar and Taherkhani, Amir and Tajdini, Masih and Takahashi, Ken and Taveira, Nuno and Teagle, Whitney L. and Teame, Hirut and Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash and Teklehaimanot, Berhane Fseha and Terrason, Sonyah and Tessema, Zemenu Tadesse and Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman and Thomson, Azalea M. and Tohidinik, Hamid Reza and Tonelli, Marcello and Topor-Madry, Roman and Torre, Anna E. and Touvier, Mathilde and Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto Roberto and Tran, Bach Xuan and Travillian, Ravensara and Troeger, Christopher E. and Truelsen, Thomas Clement and Tsai, Alexander C. and Tsatsakis, Aristidis and Car, Lorainne Tudor and Tyrovolas, Stefanos and Uddin, Riaz and Ullah, Saif and Undurraga, Eduardo A. and Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran and Vacante, Marco and Vakilian, Alireza and Valdez, Pascual R. and Varughese, Santosh and Vasankari, Tommi Juhani and Vasseghian, Yasser and Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy and Violante, Francesco S. and Vlassov, Vasily and Vollset, Stein Emil and Vongpradith, Avina and Vukovic, Ana and Vukovic, Rade and Waheed, Yasir and Walters, Madgalene K. and Wang, Jiayu and Wang, Yafeng and Wang, Yuan-Pang and Ward, Joseph L. and Watson, Alexandrea and Wei, Jingkai and Weintraub, Robert G. and Weiss, Daniel J. and Weiss, Jordan and Westerman, Ronny and Whisnant, Joanna L. and Whiteford, Harvey A. and Wiangkham, Taweewat and Wiens, Kirsten E. and Wijeratne, Tissa and Wilner, Lauren B. and Wilson, Shadrach and Wojtyniak, Bogdan and Wolfe, Charles D. A. and Wool, Eve E. and Wu, Ai-Min and Hanson, Sarah Wulf and Wunrow, Han Yong and Xu, Gelin and Xu, Rixing and Yadgir, Simon and Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh and Yamagishi, Kazumasa and Yaminfirooz, Mousa and Yano, Yuichiro and Yaya, Sanni and Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid and Yearwood, Jamal A. and Yeheyis, Tomas Y. and Yeshitila, Yordanos Gizachew and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Lebni, Javad Yoosefi and Younis, Mustafa Z. and Younker, Theodore Patrick and Yousefi, Zabihollah and Yousefifard, Mahmoud and Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh and Yousuf, Abdilahi Yousuf and Yu, Chuanhua and Yusefzadeh, Hasan and Moghadam, Telma Zahirian and Zaki, Leila and Zaman, Sojib Bin and Zamani, Mohammad and Zamanian, Maryam and Zandian, Hamed and Zangeneh, Alireza and Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich and Zewdie, Kaleab Alemayehu and Zhang, Yunquan and Zhang, Zhi-Jiang and Zhao, Jeff T. and Zhao, Yingxi and Zheng, Peng and Zhou, Maigeng and Ziapour, Arash and Zimsen, Stephanie R. M. and Naghavi, Mohsen and Murray, Christopher J. L.}, urldate = {2023-03-14}, date = {2020-10-17}, pmid = {33069326}, note = {Publisher: Elsevier}, file = {Full Text PDF:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/PL3HFMXA/Vos et al. - 2020 - Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 .pdf:application/pdf}, } @report{global_burden_of_disease_collaborative_network_global_2020, location = {Seattle, United States of America}, title = {Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 ({GBD} 2019) Cause List Mapped to {ICD} Codes}, abstract = {Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network. Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 ({GBD} 2019) Cause List Mapped to {ICD} Codes. Seattle, United States of America: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ({IHME}), 2020.}, institution = {nstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ({IHME})}, author = {Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network}, date = {2020}, file = {Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Cau.PDF:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/CVXNRJRD/Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Cau.PDF:application/pdf;IHME_GBD_2019_COD_CAUSE_ICD_CODE_MAP_Y2020M10D15.XLSX:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/TBSL7VCZ/IHME_GBD_2019_COD_CAUSE_ICD_CODE_MAP_Y2020M10D15.XLSX:application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet;IHME_GBD_2019_NONFATAL_CAUSE_ICD_CODE_MAP_Y2020M10D15.XLSX:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/6P4A94JR/IHME_GBD_2019_NONFATAL_CAUSE_ICD_CODE_MAP_Y2020M10D15.XLSX:application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet}, } @misc{noauthor_global_2022, title = {Global Burdent of Disease Study 2019 ({GBD} 2019) Results}, url = {https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/}, publisher = {Seattle, United States: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ({IHME}), University of Washington}, date = {2022}, } @online{noauthor_rxnav---box_nodate, title = {{RxNav}-in-a-Box - {RxNav} Applications}, url = {https://lhncbc.nlm.nih.gov/RxNav/applications/RxNav-in-a-Box.html}, urldate = {2023-04-10}, file = {RxNav-in-a-Box - RxNav Applications:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/A9S2NM29/RxNav-in-a-Box.html:text/html}, } @online{noauthor_icd-10_nodate, title = {{ICD}-10 Version:2019}, url = {https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en#/C00}, urldate = {2023-04-10}, file = {ICD-10 Version\:2019:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/23DGMZ5X/en.html:text/html}, } @Misc{rstan, title = {{RStan}: the {R} interface to {Stan}}, author = {{Stan Development Team}}, note = {R package version 2.21.8}, year = {2023}, url = {https://mc-stan.org/}, } @Misc{mc-stan, title = {Stan Modelling usersGuide and Reference Manual}, author = {{Stan Development Team}}, note = {R package version 2.26}, year = {2022}, url = {https://mc-stan.org/}, } @book{mcelreath_statistical_2020, location = {Boca Raton}, edition = {2}, title = {Statistical rethinking: a Bayesian course with examples in R and Stan}, isbn = {978-0-367-13991-9}, series = {{CRC} texts in statistical science}, shorttitle = {Statistical rethinking}, abstract = {"Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan, Second Edition builds knowledge/confidence in statistical modeling. Pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations (usually automated.) Unique, computational approach ensures readers understand details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their modeling work"--}, publisher = {Taylor and Francis, {CRC} Press}, author = {{McElreath}, Richard}, date = {2020}, } @report{global_burden_of_disease_collaborative_network_global_2020-1, location = {Seattle, United States of America}, title = {Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 ({GBD} 2019) Cause Hierarchy}, abstract = {Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network. Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 ({GBD} 2019) Cause Hierarchy Seattle, United States of America: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ({IHME}), 2020.}, institution = {nstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ({IHME})}, author = {Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network}, date = {2020}, } @article{ursu_drugcentral_2017, title = {{DrugCentral}: online drug compendium}, volume = {45}, issn = {0305-1048, 1362-4962}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/nar/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/nar/gkw993}, doi = {10.1093/nar/gkw993}, shorttitle = {{DrugCentral}}, pages = {D932--D939}, issue = {D1}, journaltitle = {Nucleic Acids Research}, shortjournal = {Nucleic Acids Res}, author = {Ursu, Oleg and Holmes, Jayme and Knockel, Jeffrey and Bologa, Cristian G. and Yang, Jeremy J. and Mathias, Stephen L. and Nelson, Stuart J. and Oprea, Tudor I.}, urldate = {2023-04-10}, date = {2017-01-04}, langid = {english}, file = {Full Text:/home/dad/Nextcloud/Zotero_data/storage/7W6THRK6/Ursu et al. - 2017 - DrugCentral online drug compendium.pdf:application/pdf}, }