From e6c58033fc35b35e48e27ffcf97a8f5781f56464 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Will King Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2022 09:55:10 -0800 Subject: [PATCH] Add 'Concept paper 2022-02-09' --- Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md | 45 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 45 insertions(+) create mode 100644 Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md diff --git a/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md b/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3686e49 --- /dev/null +++ b/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +# Goals +I think I can get two, maybe three, papers out of this: + +- Estimate the joint probability of success and Plan Normalized duration. +- Estimate a model similar to EK's model of market vs scientific failure. +- Develop a structural model that includes a policy parameter relevant to a policy the CBO cares about (Not a high priority yet). + +## Questions: + +- How can one statistically describe the way drugs pass through the FDA development pipeline? +- What is the effect of `policy` on phase completion and phase transition? + +# Models + +## Phase completion: Joint Probability Estimation (single paper?) + +Can probably use the data we have. +This would include Plan Normalized duration, where we take the planned completion date and +estimate the term: (Actual completion date - start date)/(Planned completion date - start date) + +By estimating P(end condition | data) and P(Plan normalized duration | end condition & data) I can get +P(end condition and Plan normalized duration | data), the more useful joint probability describing phase completion. + + +## Phase Transition: Probability Estimation (single paper?) + +Once I have the joint probability, I can begin estimateing a model similar to Ekaterina Khmelnitskaya's model of drug development, +trying to separate out probability of scientific vs market drops. + +This would use the IND or similar data to build the list of phase transitions. + +### Design tradeoffs +Some design tradeoffs include + +- Normalized or non-normalized transition paths? I'm particularly interested in inclucing mixed-phase paths. + +## Overall Model + +Overall this would allow me to construct a probabalistic description of passing through the d + +# Estimation Strategy +Probably use a non-parametric bayesian approach to estimating the probability densities. + +## Identification Strategy +