diff --git a/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md b/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md index 3668bb1..ad552d2 100644 --- a/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md +++ b/Concept-paper-2022-02-09.md @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ Attempt to build a "cannonical" probabalistic model of the clinical trials proce A couple of general principles. - Describe the model in terms of conditional probability distributions (not expectations). -- Model based on information known at the beginning of the trial. (benefit of the [data] in use) +- Model based on information known at the beginning of the trial. (benefit of the [historical data](https://gitea.kgjk.icu/Research/ClinicalTrialsEstimation/wiki/Concept-paper-2022-02-09#data) we captured). - This might allow me to escape [[EK]]'s markov modeling approach for phase transitions. ## Phase completion: Joint Probability Estimation (single paper?) @@ -63,6 +63,15 @@ The probabalistic model could then be used to answer various questions, includin It would also be straightforward to develop simulations from this approach, as the probabilities are right there. # Data +## Phase Completion + +Use the API access given to CBO to get: + +- Information at the beginning of the project. +- Information after wrap-up of the project (completion status). + +This would allow estimation to be contingent on beliefs at the beginning of the trial. + # Estimation Strategy Probably use a non-parametric (np-bayesian?) approach to estimating the probability densities.