# ClinicalTrialsEstimation


The model I am going to fit

Terminated .~ Bernoulli.(prob)
duration .~ Gamma(shape,scale)

#terminated
prob .~ logistic.(M_duration)
M_duration = X * beta_duration
beta_duration  .~ MvNormal(N_duration,S_duration)

N_duration = Z * eta_duration
eta_duration .~ MvNormal

S_duration = sigma_duration * I
sigma_duration .~ Exponential(0.5)

#duration
shape .~ lognormal(mu_shape,sigma_shape)
scale .~ lognormal(mu_scale,sigma_scale)

mu_shape = 
sigma_shape = 

mu_scale = 
sigma_scale =