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Identifying commercial impediments to successfully completing 
clinical trials in otherwise capable pharmaceuticals will hopefully 
lead to a more robust and competitive pharmaceutical market.
Although the current state of this research is insufficient to draw robust
conclusions, these early results suggest that delaying the close of 
enrollment periods reduces the probability of termination of a trial.

The successful completion of Phase III clinical trials is crucial for 
bringing new treatments to market.  
This research provides insights into how enrollment management 
impacts trial outcomes.
While the preliminary results suggest that delaying the close of enrollment 
periods may reduce termination probability, the analysis 
reveals significant variation across disease categories and highlights 
important methodological challenges. 
The primary limitation that must be addressed before drawing a strong conclusion
is that of insufficient data. 
This takes two forms.
The first is the small sample size. 
To overcome this requires an improved data matching 
approach and a revised data scraper.
The second is creating a model of enrollment that can be used to address
the causal identification issue from the joint determination of
enrollment statuses and elapsed durations of trials.

Despite these limitations, this work establishes a framework for analyzing 
operational versus strategic factors in clinical trial completion. 
The approach developed here can be extended with additional data to 
provide more definitive guidance on enrollment management strategies. 
Further research in this direction could help reduce operational 
barriers to trial completion or estimating the impact policies may have through
operational channels.
Ultimately this work will hopefully support more efficient drug 
development and increased market competition.
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