Merge branch 'main'

Updated citation references
claude_rewrite
Will King 1 year ago
commit ab98934dc6

@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ describe the specific data used in the analysis (\cref{dataintegration}).
Since Sep 27th, 2007 those who conduct clinical trials of FDA controlled
drugs or devices on human subjects must register
their trial at \url{ClinicalTrials.gov}
(\cite{noauthor_fdaaa_nodate}).
\cite{usnlm_fdaaa801finalrule}.
This involves submitting information on the expected enrollment and duration of
trials, drugs or devices that will be used, treatment protocols and study arms,
as well as contact information the trial sponsor and treatment sites.
@ -39,13 +39,13 @@ When starting a new trial, the required information must be submitted
After the initial submission, the data is briefly reviewed for quality and
then the trial record is published and the trial is assigned a
National Clinical Trial (NCT) identifier.
(\cite{noauthor_fdaaa_nodate}).
\cite{usnlm_fdaaa801finalrule}.
Each trial's record is updated periodically, including a final update that must occur
within a year of completing the primary objective, although exceptions are
available for trials related to drug approvals or for trials with secondary
objectives that require further observation\footnote{This rule came into effect in 2017}
(\cite{noauthor_fdaaa_nodate}).
\cite{usnlm_fdaaa801finalrule}.
Other than the requirements for the the first and last submissions, all other
updates occur at the discresion of the trial sponsor.
Because the ClinicalTrials.gov website serves as a central point of information
@ -61,8 +61,8 @@ to join a clinical trial.
%include screenshots?
The second way to access the data is through a normalized database setup by
the
\href{https://aact.ctti-clinicaltrials.org/}{Clinical Trials Transformation Initiative}
called AACT. %TODO: Get CITATION
\authorcite{ctti_aact_2022}
called the Aggreggate Analysis of ClinicalTrials.gov (AACT).
The AACT database is available as a PostgreSQL database dump or set of pipe (``$\vert$'')
delimited files and matches the current version of the ClinicalTrials.gov database.
This format is ameniable to large scale analysis, but does not contain information about
@ -130,7 +130,8 @@ Each NDC code can have multiple SPLs associated with it because each
drug compound may be packaged in multiple ways, e.g. boxes with different
numbers of blister packs.
These SPLs are made available for download so that they can be integrated
into patient health systems to improve patient safety (\cite{noauthor_indexing_nodate}).
into patient health systems to improve patient safety
\cite{indexingsplfactsheet_}.
The FDA also published additional data in the NDC SPL Data Elements (NSDE) file.
This file contains some of the data from the SPL files, as well as the dates
@ -159,7 +160,7 @@ Years of Life Lost (YLL), and Years Lived with Disability (YLD) and come with
both an estimate and 95\% confidence interval bounds.
Estimates are available for national, multinational, and global
populations
(\cite{vos_global_2020}).
\cite{vos_globalburden369_2020}.
These classes of disease are organized in a hierarchy, with each subsuming category
having its own estimates of disease incidence.
@ -171,7 +172,7 @@ that are most important from a public health perspective.
% the nested category outline.
The IHME also provides a link between the disease/cause hierarchy and ICD10
codes
(\cite{global_burden_of_disease_collaborative_network_global_2020}).
\cite{globalburdenofdiseasecollaborativenetwork_globalburdendisease_2020a}.
%----------------------------------------------------
@ -185,7 +186,7 @@ In each section below I briefly describe each terminology, its contents, and use
The Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) Thesaurus is produced and maintained by the National
Library of Medicine.
It is used to index subjects in various NLM publications including PubMed
(\cite{noauthor_medical_nodate}).
\cite{medicalsubjectheadingshomepage_}.
The AACT database contains a table that links clinical trials' clinical conditions
and drug names to terms in the MeSH thesaurus.
As this contains a standardized nomenclature, it simplified much of the
@ -193,7 +194,7 @@ linking between clinical trials and other datasources.
\paragraph{RxNorm}
According to \cite{noauthor_rxnorm_nodate-1}
According to \cite{usnlm_rxnorm_2023}
\begin{displayquote}
What is RxNorm? \\
RxNorm is two things: a normalized naming system for generic and branded drugs;
@ -215,7 +216,7 @@ The one I chose to use was a MariaDB database that backs a service called RxNav
provided by the National Library of Medicine (NLM).
The NLM provides scripts to set up and host the backing databases on your
own servers
(\cite{noauthor_rxnav---box_nodate}).
\cite{usnlm_rxnaviabox_2023}.
After setting up the local server, I wrote a python program to export
the data from the RxNorm database and import it into the AACT Database.
This was required because the former uses a MariaDB database server
@ -232,23 +233,29 @@ The International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) is a
worldwide standard for categorizing human disease maintained by the
World Health Organization.
Although the WHO version's last major update was in 2019 and it was officially
superceded in 2022 by the 11th revision (\cite{noauthor_international_nodate}),
superceded in 2022 by the 11th revision
\cite{who_icd-10_2023}
.
the 10th revision is still in use in the United States as the
Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) continues to publish
updated versions called
ICD-10-CM (Clinical Managment) (\cite{noauthor_2023_nodate}) and
ICD-10-PCS (Procedure Coding System)(\cite{noauthor_2023_nodate-1}) for use
in medical billing.
ICD-10-CM (Clinical Managment)
\cite{uscms_icd-10_cm_2022}
and ICD-10-PCS (Procedure Coding System)
\cite{uscms_icd-10_pcs_2022}
for use in medical billing.
ICD-10 codes are organized in a heirarchy.
There are 22 highest level categories, representing general categories such
as cancers, mental illness, and infectious diseases.
The second layer of the hierarchy consists of about 225 2nd level groupings.
The second layer of the hierarchy consists of about 225 groupings.
%how was it used
The GBD database provided a mapping between their categories and ICD-10
codes (\cite{global_burden_of_disease_collaborative_network_global_2020}).
codes
\cite{globalburdenofdiseasecollaborativenetwork_globalburdendisease_2020a}
.
Unfortunately it appears to use a combination of the default WHO ICD-10 codes
and the ICD-10-CM codes from the CMS.
Additionally, many diseases classified by ICD-10 codes do not correspond to
@ -256,26 +263,27 @@ categories in the GDB database.
%how it was obtained
As I needed a combined list of ICD-10 codes, I first obtained the 2019 version
of the ICD-10-CM codes from the CMS (\cite{noauthor_2019_nodate}).
of the ICD-10-CM codes from the CMS
(the most recent version corresponding to the GBD matching file)
With the arrival of the ICD-11 system, it was difficult to find an official
source from which to download the WHO versions of ICD-10 codes.
Eventually I resorted to copying them from the navigation bar of the
\href{https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en}{official WHO ICD-10 (2019) website}
(\cite{noauthor_icd-10_nodate}.)
\cite{worldhealthorganization_icd10version2019_}.
After getting both sources into the same format,
I combined them and removed duplicate codes, preferring to keep the descriptions
from the WHO version.
This was done using standard unix scripting commands.
I then imported the data into the Postgres Database alongside the AACT data.
\paragraph{Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) Thesarus}
The NLM also publishes a medical terminology thesaurus
known at the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) which links terminologies
such as RxNorm, MeSH, and ICD-10.
It is made available through an API hosted by the NLM.
One key feature is the ability to use a basic text search to find matching
terms in various terminologies.
% Did I use the UMLS in any specific way? Not that I remember, I just linked on RXCUI's
% \paragraph{Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) Thesarus}
%
% The NLM also publishes a medical terminology thesaurus
% known at the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) which links terminologies
% such as RxNorm, MeSH, and ICD-10.
% It is made available through an API hosted by the NLM.
% One key feature is the ability to use a basic text search to find matching
% terms in various terminologies.

@ -35,7 +35,8 @@ control and treatment.
Second, for some diseases there exists an endogenous dynamic
between the treatments available for a disease and the
market size/population with that disease.
\authorcite{cerda_EndogenousInnovations_2007} proposes two mechanisms
\authorcite{cerda_endogenousinnovationspharmaceutical_2007}
proposes two mechanisms
that link the drugs on the market and market size.
The inverse is that for many chronic diseases with high mortality rates,
more drugs cause better survivability, increasing the size of those markets.
@ -53,7 +54,7 @@ as opposed to the standard of enrolling healthy volunteers
\cite{commissioner_drugdevelopmentprocess_2020}
to establish safe dosages.
The trial is more likely to be terminated early if the drug is unsafe or has no
discernabile effect, therefore termination depends in part on a compound-disease
discerenable effect, therefore termination depends in part on a compound-disease
interaction.
Another challenge comes from the interaction between duration and termination;
in that if a trial terminates before closing enrollment for issues other
@ -67,7 +68,7 @@ fundamental pharmacokinetic properties of the compounds.
These are only imperfectly measured both prior to and during any given trial.
Previously measured safety and efficacy inform the decision to start the trial
in the first place while currently observed safety and efficiency results
help the sponsor judge whether or not to continue the trial.
help the sponsor judge whether to continue the trial.
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\subsection{Data Summary}
@ -92,7 +93,7 @@ within a year of completing the primary objective, although exceptions are
available for trials related to drug approvals or for trials with secondary
objectives that require further observation\footnote{This rule came into effect in 2017}
(\cite{anderson_fdadrugapproval_2022}).
Other than the requirements for the the first and last submissions, all other
Other than the requirements for the first and last submissions, all other
updates occur at the discresion of the trial sponsor.
Because the ClinicalTrials.gov website serves as a central point of information
on which trials are active or recruting for a given condition or drug,
@ -135,7 +136,8 @@ to happen anytime soon, causal identification depends on using a
structural causal model.
Because the data generating process for the clinical trials records is rather
straightforward, this is an ideal place to use
\authorcite{pearl_causality_2000}
\authorcite{pearl_causalitymodelsreasoning_2009}
Do-Calculus.
This process involves describing the data generating process in the form of
a directed acyclic graph, where the nodes represent different variables

@ -335,6 +335,13 @@
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/VAKSGTAP/understanding-unapproved-use-approved-drugs-label.html}
}
@dataset{ctti_aact_2022,
title = {Aggregate {{Analysis}} of {{ClinicalTrials}}.Gov ({{AACT}}) {{Database}}},
author = {{Clinical Trials Transformation Initiative (CTTI}},
date = {2022},
location = {https://aact.ctti-clinicaltrials.org}
}
@article{deng_bayesianmodelingprediction_2017,
title = {Bayesian Modeling and Prediction of Accrual in Multi-Regional Clinical Trials},
author = {Deng, Yi and Zhang, Xiaoxi and Long, Qi},
@ -451,14 +458,6 @@
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/IG37VET3/The RAND J of Economics - 2015 - Dubois - Market size and pharmaceutical innovation.pdf;/home/will/Zotero/storage/PH5VBVAW/Dubois et al. - 2015 - Market size and pharmaceutical innovation.pdf}
}
@online{fdaaa801finalruleclinicaltrialsgov_,
title = {{{FDAAA}} 801 and the {{Final Rule}} - {{ClinicalTrials}}.Gov},
url = {https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/manage-recs/fdaaa},
urldate = {2023-04-08},
langid = {english},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/V9YVGVK2/fdaaa.html}
}
@legislation{federalregister_clinicaltrialsregistration_2016,
title = {Clinical {{Trials Registration}} and {{Results Information Submission}}},
author = {{Federal Register}},
@ -491,10 +490,13 @@
}
@online{frequentlyaskedquestionsclinicaltrialsgov_,
type = {Government},
title = {Frequently {{Asked Questions}} - {{ClinicalTrials}}.Gov},
author = {{U.S. National Library of Medicine}},
url = {https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/manage-recs/faq#board},
urldate = {2023-04-08},
langid = {english},
organization = {ClinicalTrials.gov},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/GNBZDX5B/faq.html}
}
@ -628,12 +630,6 @@
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/9399MLSQ/Hwang et al. - 2016 - Failure of Investigational Drugs in Late-Stage Cli.pdf;/home/will/Zotero/storage/JJC96CPC/Hwang et al. - 2016 - Failure of Investigational Drugs in Late-Stage Cli.pdf}
}
@misc{icd10cmofficialguidelinescodingreporting_2022,
title = {{{ICD-10-CM Official Guidelines}} for {{Coding}} and {{Reporting}}},
date = {2022-04},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/53ZTGLWD/10cmguidelines-FY2022-April-1-update.pdf}
}
@online{icd10version2019_,
title = {{{ICD-10 Version}}:2019},
url = {https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en#/C00},
@ -646,15 +642,6 @@
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/KAHW2ABD/Indexing-SPL-Fact-Sheet.pdf}
}
@online{internationalclassificationdiseasesicd_,
title = {International {{Classification}} of {{Diseases}} ({{ICD}})},
url = {https://www.who.int/standards/classifications/classification-of-diseases},
urldate = {2023-04-09},
abstract = {International Classification of Diseases (ICD) Revision},
langid = {english},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/4Y3F35AR/classification-of-diseases.html}
}
@misc{interviewadamgeorge_2023,
title = {Interview with {{Adam George}}.},
date = {2023-05-05}
@ -768,7 +755,7 @@
journaltitle = {Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference},
shortjournal = {Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference},
volume = {93},
number = {1-2},
number = {1--2},
pages = {239--246},
issn = {03783758},
doi = {10.1016/S0378-3758(00)00203-2},
@ -888,16 +875,10 @@
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/Y6J65VD2/orange-book-preface.html}
}
@online{rxnavboxrxnavapplications_,
title = {{{RxNav-in-a-Box}} - {{RxNav Applications}}},
url = {https://lhncbc.nlm.nih.gov/RxNav/applications/RxNav-in-a-Box.html},
urldate = {2023-04-10},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/A9S2NM29/RxNav-in-a-Box.html}
}
@online{rxnorm_,
type = {Product, Program, and Project Descriptions},
title = {{{RxNorm}}},
author = {{U.S. National Library of Medicine}},
publisher = {U.S. National Library of Medicine},
url = {https://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/umls/rxnorm/index.html},
urldate = {2023-04-08},
@ -905,16 +886,6 @@
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/UPPXYYW6/index.html}
}
@online{rxnormoverview_,
type = {Product, Program, and Project Descriptions},
title = {{{RxNorm Overview}}},
publisher = {U.S. National Library of Medicine},
url = {https://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/umls/rxnorm/overview.html},
urldate = {2023-04-08},
langid = {english},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/XI269ZNM/overview.html}
}
@article{sicklick_precisiononcologyintentiontreat_2020,
title = {Precision Oncology: The Intention-to-Treat Analysis Fallacy},
shorttitle = {Precision Oncology},
@ -1059,6 +1030,51 @@
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/7W6THRK6/Ursu et al. - 2017 - DrugCentral online drug compendium.pdf}
}
@misc{uscms_icd-10_cm_2022,
title = {{{ICD-10-CM Official Guidelines}} for {{Coding}} and {{Reporting}}},
author = {{Centers For Medicare and Medicaid}},
date = {2022-04},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/53ZTGLWD/10cmguidelines-FY2022-April-1-update.pdf}
}
@misc{uscms_icd-10_pcs_2022,
title = {2022 {{ICD-10-PCS Official Guidelines}} for {{Coding}} and {{Reporting}}},
author = {{Centers For Medicare and Medicaid}},
date = {2022-04},
langid = {english},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/7ADA2YND/2022 ICD-10-PCS Official Guidelines for Coding and Reporting.pdf}
}
@online{usnlm_fdaaa800finalrule,
type = {Government},
title = {{{FDAAA}} 801 and the {{Final Rule}} - {{ClinicalTrials}}.Gov},
author = {{U.S. National Library of Medicine}},
url = {https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/manage-recs/fdaaa},
urldate = {2023-04-08},
langid = {english},
organization = {ClinicalTrials.gov},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/V9YVGVK2/fdaaa.html}
}
@online{usnlm_rxnavinabos_2023,
title = {{{RxNav-in-a-Box}} - {{RxNav Applications}}},
author = {{U.S. National Library of Medicine}},
url = {https://lhncbc.nlm.nih.gov/RxNav/applications/RxNav-in-a-Box.html},
urldate = {2023-04-10},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/A9S2NM29/RxNav-in-a-Box.html}
}
@online{usnlm_rxnorm_2023,
type = {Product, Program, and Project Descriptions},
title = {{{RxNorm Overview}}},
author = {{U.S. National Library of Medicine}},
publisher = {U.S. National Library of Medicine},
url = {https://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/umls/rxnorm/overview.html},
urldate = {2023-04-08},
langid = {english},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/XI269ZNM/overview.html}
}
@article{vandergronde_addressingchallengehighpriced_2017,
title = {Addressing the Challenge of High-Priced Prescription Drugs in the Era of Precision Medicine: {{A}} Systematic Review of Drug Life Cycles, Therapeutic Drug Markets and Regulatory Frameworks},
shorttitle = {Addressing the Challenge of High-Priced Prescription Drugs in the Era of Precision Medicine},
@ -1135,6 +1151,16 @@
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/HD3WAS2A/Waring et al. - 2015 - An analysis of the attrition of drug candidates fr.pdf;/home/will/Zotero/storage/SJIM9P79/Waring et al. - 2015 - An analysis of the attrition of drug candidates fr.pdf}
}
@online{who_icd-10_2023,
title = {International {{Classification}} of {{Diseases}} ({{ICD}})},
author = {{World Health Organization}},
url = {https://www.who.int/standards/classifications/classification-of-diseases},
urldate = {2023-04-09},
abstract = {International Classification of Diseases (ICD) Revision},
langid = {english},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/4Y3F35AR/classification-of-diseases.html}
}
@article{wong_estimationclinicaltrial_2019,
title = {Estimation of Clinical Trial Success Rates and Related Parameters},
author = {Wong, Chi Heem and Siah, Kien Wei and Lo, Andrew W},
@ -1153,6 +1179,16 @@
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/YBKSGRWT/Wong et al. - 2019 - Estimation of clinical trial success rates and rel.pdf}
}
@online{worldhealthorganization_icd10version2019_,
title = {{{ICD-10 Version}}:2019},
author = {{World Health Organization}},
url = {https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en},
urldate = {2025-01-20},
organization = {ICD-10 Version:2019},
keywords = {ICD-10},
file = {/home/will/Zotero/storage/5T8CPB6H/en.html}
}
@article{zhang_jointmonitoringprediction_2012,
title = {Joint Monitoring and Prediction of Accrual and Event Times in Clinical Trials: {{Prediction}} of Accrual and Event Times in Clinical Trials},
shorttitle = {Joint Monitoring and Prediction of Accrual and Event Times in Clinical Trials},

@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
* 2025
** 2025-W03
*** 2025-01-15 Wednesday
**** TODO Push work to overleaf
DEADLINE: <2025-01-15 Wed>
**** DONE Push work to overleaf
DEADLINE: <2025-01-15 Wed> CLOSED: [2025-01-20 Mon 11:46]
*** 2025-01-17 Friday
**** TODO Redo analysis using "Recruitng" as the base status
@ -17,9 +17,19 @@
*** 2025-01-18 Saturday
**** TODO Decide if this section needs added
[[[[file:/home/will/research/phd_deliverables/JobMarketPaper/Paper/sections/11_intro_and_lit.tex::45]]]]
**** TODO Update citations in lit review section.
**** RECINDED Update citations in lit review section.
CLOSED: [2025-01-20 Mon 11:47]
[[[[file:/home/will/research/phd_deliverables/JobMarketPaper/Paper/sections/05_LitReview.tex::25]]]]
**** TODO Ask CLAUDE to help Lit review flow better.
Realized that this was readded by mistake. I integrated lit review into intro in 11
**** RECINDED Ask CLAUDE to help Lit review flow better.
CLOSED: [2025-01-20 Mon 11:47]
[[[[file:/home/will/research/phd_deliverables/JobMarketPaper/Paper/sections/05_LitReview.tex::25]]]]
**** TODO Rearrange the lit review.
Realized that this was readded by mistake. I integrated lit review into intro in 11
**** DONE Rearrange the lit review.
CLOSED: [2025-01-20 Mon 11:47]
[[[[file:/home/will/research/phd_deliverables/JobMarketPaper/Paper/sections/05_LitReview.tex::25]]]]
Realized that this was readded by mistake. I integrated lit review into intro in 11
** 2025-W04
*** 2025-01-20 Monday
**** TODO get a citation for the AACT project
[[[[file:/home/will/research/phd_deliverables/JobMarketPaper/Paper/sections/10_CausalStory.tex::114]]]]

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