Adjusted title, planned reorder of data/causal section.

Latex/Paper/Main.tex

@@ -24,7 +24,8 @@
 \titlespacing*{\paragraph}
 {0pt}{3.25ex plus 1ex minus .2ex}{1.5ex plus .2ex}
 
-\title{The effects of market conditions on enrollment and completion of clinical trials\\ \small{Preliminary Draft}}
+\title{The effects of market conditions and enrollment on the 
+completion of clinical trials\\ \small{Preliminary Draft}}
 \author{William King}
 
 \usepackage{multirow}

Latex/Paper/sections/03_CausalIdentification.tex

@@ -2,29 +2,60 @@
 \graphicspath{{\subfix{Assets/img/}}}
 
 \begin{document}
+% Introduce clinicaltrials.gov
+% - Describe different statuses 
+% - status flowchart
+% Introduce causal model
+% - Diagram
+% - List each node and what they influence (and why)
+% Begin Discussing Data
+% - Where did I get data for each node?
 
-Because running experiments on companies running clinical trials is not going
-to happen anytime soon, causal identification will depend on creating a 
-structural causal model.
-In \cref{Fig:CausalModel} I diagram the directed acyclic graph that describes
-the data generating model.
-The proposed data generating model consists of a decision maker, the study 
-sponsor, who must decide whether to let a trial run to completion or terminate
+Because running randomized experiments on companies running clinical trials 
+is unlikely to to happen anytime soon, 
+causal identification will depend on observational methods. 
+I use the do-calculus approach developed by Judea Pearl
+\cite{pearl_CausalityModels_2009}
+to describe what affects the success of a Phase III clinical trial. 
+I then use that model to derive the econometric model capable of estimating
+the effect of extending the recruiting period or of having an additional 
+competing drug.
+
+
+
+% In \cref{Fig:CausalModel} I diagram the directed acyclic graph that describes
+% the data generating model.
+The proposed data generating model consists of a decision maker
+-- the study sponsor --
+who must decide whether to let a trial run to completion or terminate
 the trial early. 
-While receiving updates regarding the status of the trial, they ask questions
-such as:
+While receiving updates regarding the status of the trial, they try to 
+answer questions such as:
 \begin{itemize}
     \item Do I need to terminate the trial due to safety incidents?
-    \item Does it appear that the drug is effective enough to achieve our 
-        goals, justifying continuing the trial?
+    \item Does it appear that the drug is effective?
     \item Are we recruiting enough participants to achive the statistical
         results we need?
-    \item Does the current market conditions and expectations about returns on 
+    \item Does the current market conditions and expectations about 
+        returns on 
         investment justify the expenditures we are making?
 \end{itemize}
-When appropriate, the study sponsor terminates the trial.
-If there are not enough issues to terminate the trial, it continues until it 
-is completed.
+Althought I treat this as a single agent, in reality, there are multiple 
+stakeholders involved in chosing whether the trial should continue, including
+those running the trial (which may be a separate firm), 
+the company developing the drug, additional rightsholders, 
+or funding organizations.
+
+% When appropriate, the study sponsor terminates the trial.
+% If there are not enough issues to terminate the trial, it continues until it 
+% is completed.
+
+In the United States, clinical trials are required by law to be registered on 
+\url{ClinicalTrials.gov}, where they are made available to the public. 
+Trials must be registered 
+
+% 
+
 
 While conducting a trial, the safety and efficacy of a drug are driven by
 fundamental pharmacokinetic properties of the compounds. 
@@ -36,19 +67,25 @@ Of course, these decisions are both affected by the specific condition being
 treated due to differences in the severity of the symptoms.
 
 When a trial has been started, it comes time to recruit participancts.
-Participants frequently depend on the advice of their physician when deciding 
+The enrollment of participants in a trial depends on a few factors.
+Participants usually depend on the advice of their physician when deciding 
 to join a trial or not. 
 As these physicians have a duty to seek their patients best interest; they, along
 with their patients will evaluate if the previously observed safety and efficacy
-results justify joining the trial over using current standard treatments.
-Thus the current market conditions may affect the rate at which participants 
-enroll in the trial.
+results justify joining the trial in contrast to using the current standard 
+of care. 
+Thus enrollment rates are influenced by the treatments currently on the market. 
+Recruitment can also be hindered if disease has a low impact 
+-- in which participants might have little incentive to join -- 
+or if there are few people who have the disease. 
+The overall impact of the disease also influences whether or not there are 
+already drugs on the market to treat that disease. 
 
-The enrollment of participants in a trial depends on a few other factors.
 The condition or disease of interest and how it progresses will determine how long
 recruitiment will be held open versus just an observation of treatment arms.
 Aditionally, a trial that has already reached a high enough enrollment will often
-close recruitment by switching to an "Active, not recruiting" stage to manage costs.
+close recruitment. 
+Both of these are reported as "Active, not recruting" to ClinicalTrials.gov. 
 Finally, enrolling participants depends on how difficult it is to find people 
 who suffer from the condition of interest.