diff --git a/HandlingIdentificationEtc.md b/HandlingIdentificationEtc.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..db7abfe --- /dev/null +++ b/HandlingIdentificationEtc.md @@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ +Key points + +This is an attempt at measuring the effect of extending the enrollment period. +The main issue is that the interaction between enrollment levels, enrollment status, and timing is confounded due to endogeneity. +This can be addressed + +The other concerns are: +- endogeneity between market and population. + I this isn't a caual issue because it is contained between the two, can be treated as a single RV and controlled for together. +- ommitted variable bias. Did I forget or miss anything? + - The DAG is based on the details outlined based on FDA rules. I NEED TO LOOK THOSE UP AGAIN. The Assumptions that allow this to work are: + 1. timeliness/accuracy in reporting open and close + 2. updating certain details (open/close recruitment) is helpful because this is part of your marketing. (Concerns about measurement error) + 3. +- Where did the DAG come from? + +In spite of the endogeneity issue, I chose to continue modelling as if it were causal, because: +1. If we assume an intervetion that is handles the joint timing/enrollment status together, then it is causally identified (but hard to interpret) + - Walking away from identification is an issue in that you lose the use of this analysis + - Interpretation is as follows: changing enrollment status but breaking out of the standard timing of these things. Need a better way to say that. +2. + + +This is the only attempt I've found that tries to address this in a causal way, everything else is just descriptive. +It also differs in being the first econ literature on measuring the impact of an operational concern.