How do I begin work on stuff

- next step is causal story. key points include
    - we are trying to separate strategic and operational concerns. (why is this a difficult problem?)
        - we can't trust what we are told
        - terminations could be due to safety, strategic, or operational concerns.
    - explaining confounding between 
        -population/market and market conditions.
        - market conditions and enrollment. 
        - population/market and enrollment.
    - describe other confounders
        - safety and effectiveness
        - duration <--> enrollment/termination
        - Condition 
        - Decision to procede with Phase III trial
    - How do I handle this?
- Introduce Do-Calculus
    - DAG model
    - What do I need to control for, in some form or other?
- Introduce Data
    - Clinical Trial Progression
        - AACT gives us information on
            - terminated/completed status
            - compound-indication pairs
            - MeSH/RxNorm links
        - Snapshots
    - Market Conditions
        - can't directly measure alternate treatments/standards of care.
        - Can get measures of USP - formulary alternatives
        - Can get number of generics or brand names with same drug.
    - Population Sizes
        - IHME Global Burden of Disease dataset. Best measure of impact of a given disease category.
            - DALY's
    - How much data do I have?
- Econometric model
    - for a given state, what is the probability it will terminate?
        - more accurately for my dist-diff analysis: for a given state, what is the distribution of the probabilities it will terminate?
    - basic bernoulli-logistic model, linear in parameters.
    - What are the specific things I am looking at?
        - number of competing treatments.
        - delaying close of enrollment.
